Free NFL Picks for San Francisco at Cincinnati (-3) 1:00 PM EST: QB Smith, who is still learning the new offense under 1^st year HC Harbaugh, takes to the road for the 1^st time.  This offense has scored 57 points despite averaging just 207.5 YPG.  Plus 4 net TOs have been a big contributor.  The rush defense has been a big help allowing just 55/2.5.  For the Bengals, QB Dalton makes his 1^st home start.  There are 5 teams playing their 1^st home game this week.  The knee jerk reaction is to play on these teams.  But that has turned a huge loss in recent years.  Under HC Lewis, this team has a poor history as favorite posting records of 6-20 ATS and 2-12 ATS of late.  They are just 1-8 ATS on this field recently.  This is the only game this week which features a West Coast team traveling East to play a 10:00 AM body time game.  This year these team are 0-3 SU, but 2-1 ATS.  Nonetheless, the opinion favors the Niners in this based on the superior run defense and poor history of the Bengals in this role. 

Football Prediction for NY Giants at Philadelphia (-9) 1:00 PM EST: With QB Vick cleared to play as of this writing, linemaker has opened Dream Team as a 6- point favorite.  He quickly got his wish with the public responding to the announcement that Vick would play by pushing the line up to Eagles -9.  And why wouldn’t they.  Philly has won and covered 6 straight in this series by 11 PPG.  They rationalize that only Vicks absence was the reason for the Eagles losing the game in Atlanta last Sunday night.  Yes, the offense is in high gear averaging 31 PPG and 426 YPG.  But the rush defense has been a sieve allowing St. Louis and Atlanta to run for 146 RYPG on 5.3 YPR.  Enter a Giants team who is getting healthier by the week but refuses to make excuses under 8^th year HC Coughlin. They outrushed the Cards 119-59 in their MNF 28-16 win.  It will be that ground game against the weak-link Eagles defensive front that keeps them competitive in this contest.  NFC East divisional road dogs have been a profitable play in recent history and the Giants enter with a mark of 12-7 ATS overall in that role. 

Free Pick for Miami at Cleveland (-2-) 1:00 PM ES: Here is another SOS game which features the 0-2 SU, ATS Dolphins against a Browns team who has split their first 2 meetings.  But Cleveland was getting that split against the mediocre Bengals who beat them 27-17 on this field and a victory against restructuring Indy last week.  Hardly much to recommend for a team that was 5-11 SU, ATS last year and has won only 15 games the last 3 plus years.  In fact, they enter on a 2-8 ATS slide.  Meanwhile, Miami was facing high-powered New England and Houston.  As expected, their defensive numbers are poor across the board after facing these two offenses.  But their restructured offense, which looks to play more in the open field, has been a success.  They gained 488 vs. New England and ran for 153 against Houston.  The 2 game average while running the ball is 126/5.2 while the Browns are allowing 124/4.2 overland.  Cannot help but note Sparano’s dichotomous home/road pattern which finds the road team in his games L2plusY to be now 36-14 ATS including 15-4 ATS for Miami when installed as road underdog.  

 Free Picks: 49ers at Bengals -- Best Bet from Stephen Nover
What NFL bettors need to know about San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday, September 25, 2011) from Pregame.com - Including a free best bet from Stephen Nover and analysis from host Marco D'Angelo.