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  • Created On:
    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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2012 Republican Nominee: Picks, Predictions and Odds



The talk of the political world is who will be the 2012 Republican Nominee? Back in June, oddsmakers had the former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney the heavy favorite at +150 ($100.00 wager would pay back $150.00), with Tim Pawlenty sitting in second at +250. Jon Huntsman was sitting in third at +450, followed by Rick Perry +650, Michele Bachmann +800, Ron Paul +1200, Sarah Palin +1100 and everyone else at +1000 or higher. When we check in now, we find Rick Perry has stormed into the lead and is now +120 and Mitt Romney at +140. Tim Pawlenty is now off the board and everyone else has dropped (Michele Bachmann now +1000) or stayed around the same betting odds.

Even with the continued poor economic news and rising unemployment, Barack Obama is still favored at -150 ($150.00 wager would pay back $100.00) to be the US President in 2012. On the Republican side, a $100.00 wager on Ricky Perry would pay you $275.00 and $100.00 on Mitt Romney would pay back $350.00. One on the most intriguing things of the upcoming Presidential race is that according to almost all national polling data, Obama versus an unnamed Republican loses in the general election. The intrigue comes in when you pair Obama against the current Republican field by name and almost across the board the Democrat would be elected President in 2012. According to current polling data, even though Perry is leading the field for the Republican nomination, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul have the best chance to defeat Barack Obama. Both Paul and Romney are within striking distance of Obama in the general election while Rick Perry in some polls is down close to double digits. Other Republican candidates are also close to double digit underdogs in a showdown with Obama, including Bachmann who is behind ten plus percentage points in every national poll.

If you are interested in wagering on a choice for the Republican nomination, you should check out 2012 Republican Presidential Nomination polling data from Clear Politics or Nationwide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2012 hosted at Wikipedia. Polling information at the time of this article has Ricky Perry leading almost all other Republican candidates by anywhere from a +4 to a +13 margin, with Mitt Romney sitting in a solid second and followed either by Michele Bachmann or Newt Gingrich.

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