2012 US Presidential Election Odds: Republican Nominee

Yup,romney most likely.And that sucks because same shit,different asshole.Truely believe ron paul would be good for this country and I,m not buying he is radical or crazy.This country is already in a awkward position and thats a understatement.We need a guy thats not bought and paid for,or women.Ron paul wants a smaller gov,t and will defend the constitution.Without the constitution there is no freedom

Approaching this from a handicapping standpoint, the key is understanding the Republican nomination will come down to a "semifinal" between someone from the conservative wing and the moderate wing of the party. It's hard for me to believe that Romney won't emerge over Pawlenty, a nice guy with good track record but has nothing to distinguish himself, and Huntsman who will receive great media coverage but party doesn't feel the same way about as the media does.

The conservative side of things is a little tougher to predict. I agree that Perry offers the best value at +650 and in my opinion those odds are not at all reflective of his ability to win.

I am a huge fan of Bachman and think the country is ready to elect a woman, but not someone out of the House, and not someone who is completely unfamilar to most Americans.  

Cain is a great story but the media decided he has no chance to win and I agree. Hope he ends up part of the administration though.

Gingrich? Would probably be the best president, but just has not shot at garnering support away from fresher faces whose peak was not 1994. No money either.

Ron Paul? If the nomination was like All Star balloting his rabid fans would put the country in a very awkward situation.

Palin? Few in the media are aware of this, but her nomination is in some ways tied to Perry. She is a huge fan of him, and he meets her criteria of being supportable. If Perry gets in the race, which it looks like he will, Palin will be supporting and endorsing him.

The one wildcard is Christie, but I don't think he is getting in and the odds reflect that.  

Looks to me like Perry is favorite to win the conservative side of things. He can easily overcome fears that he used to be a democrat by pointing out that so was Reagan.  He has a history of job creation (everyone is hearing that stat of 40% of all created jobs the past few years were from Texas). He will quickly gain major support of big time donors who see he can win. He is a compelling speaker who will appeal to the entire span of the party, especially because job creation is the number 1 issue. I just don't see major competion for him to get to the final two. Once Iowa is in the mirror Bachman's campaign will have peaked and I just don't see her being able to overcome Perry.

That leaves Perry and Romney fighting for the nomination. If you bet them both you are guaranteed a  profit regardless of the outsome, and I think Perry +650 will look like a total miss by oddsmakers at that point, as he would be the favorite in my mind in that matchup. After seeing McCain go down in flames I think the Tea Party and conservatives win the day and get their candidate in over the Party establishment candidate Romney.  

If you want to go that route on the candidates. Research which ones went to Yale & find out if they are of the "Skull & Bones" Secret Society.  It's amazing how many presidents,senators,ect. come from this group... Republicans & Democrats alike. Many cospiracies even go as far as to claim they have a hand in electoral tampering.....

sharp money on the freemason

I,ll take michelle if I cant get ron paul.Mitt romney is owned by the new world order,a group of hitlers Who are making progress to rule the world under one world gov,t.

Bauchman is picking up steam, Pawlenty & Santorum are legit contenders, Chris Crissty will enter after September and change EVERYTHING & Romney doesn't have a chance or any other Mormon politician(the stats and polls speak for their self on this)......when I get a chance I will speak to my aunt on these matters, who is more plugged in.  She happens to be th head of the Republican party in a certain large state....

Adding,the john birch society,american tyranny,step by step,saving our republic to a must see video as a prerequsite to talking intelligently about politics.Watch and you,ll know why I parallel whats happening in the united states to what happened in pre-world war two germany.Then you can tell me how crazy I am to compare obama to hitler

i URGE YOU ALL TO CHECK OUT THE JOHN BIRCH SOCIETY ON YOU TUBE,JUST WATCHED ,, A OVERVIEW OF AMERICA,GREAT VIDEO,PROMISE YOU,YOU,LL LEARN SOMETHING.aS FAR AS WHAT THIS THREAD STARTED OUT TO BE,ANY REPUBLICAN+150 IS A GREAT BET.

Something to think about. The NFL, America's favorite sport, is basically a socialist enterprise, this is indisputable. Pete Rozelle recognized that to generate popularity it had to encourage egalitarianism and equal opportunity within the league. There is total revenue sharing from their biggest income generators (national tv deals and merchandize sails), the worst teams get the highest draft picks, there are salary floors and caps, a team that loses players via free agency get's compensation in the draft, there are roster limits (to prevent good teams from stashing good backups), better teams are given more difficult schedules, are later on the waiver claims list, and numerous other examples of this mentality exist across the sport (restricted free agency, franchise tags, etc).

Nobody questions that this is the right way to do things, it's seen as obvious. In European soccer it is the opposite, total free market, and the same teams, located in the rich neighborhoods of the richest cities, are always the best (like the Yankees to total extremes). With sports it is clear to everyone in America that equality of opportunity is crucial, and the steps toward that are basically self evident (by that I mean the fact that the NFL's socialism is taken for granted by everyone as obviously the sensible way), and that's largely why the NFL is our favorite league. If your an Ayn Rand fan quit football, soccer is the sport for you.

In the NFL any team, anywhere, as long as it is smartly run, can succeed, yet the notion that the government (by the people, for the people) can have any role in leveling the economic playing field is totally preposterous?

Since no one knows every thing there is to know about any one thing we all form our opinions based at least to some degree on ignorance,Therefore we think were right or we swear we,re right and the reality is,since its impossible to know absolutely every thing there is to know about any one subject,we could be completely wrong.Something I always try to keep in mind when voicing my opinion.I scoff at too big to fail,the bankruptcy laws were put in place 200 years ago,for the good of the country.In my opinion the bailouts were more about the gov,t seizing power than serving the people.Name one campaign promise obama has kept.He even promised to put solar panels on the white house by the first day of spring,2011,they are not there.He has declared war in libya without congressional approval,a constitutional violation.The list goes on and on.Lets look at the facts.Both bush and obama are and have been bad for this country.I,m no expert,I dont have a degree in political science but all you have to do is look at 8 yrs. of bush and whats happened since obama took office.I dont know all the answers but removing the obama administration and limiting gov,t power is a good start,I.M.O.

Joihnny D-  Guthrie is correct.  I was addressing you only in regard to Perry and his 54% approval rating in Texas.  I was addressing someone else about the Nazi thing.  Sorry I didn't make that clear.

Talk about threads going off track, I thought this one was about betting on the election and people are talking about Japan, China and whether the political spectrum is round like the earth, so that when extremists go off in opposite direcitons they eventually meet each other.  

Anyway here's some on topic thoughts.  The odds on Michel Bachmann should be -20000.  She is a moron.  Eventually, during a stump speech in New Mexico she'll talk about how glad she is to be in the home of the Alamo where Paul Revere rang bells to tell the Mexicans not to try any of their gun control stuff on us, and that will be the end of her campaign.  The two people with less chance to be President are Newt "Tiffany" Gingrich, and Rudy "Nosferatu" Giuliani (as his staff here in NY used to call him)  "Nosferatu" is latin for the undead and was the title of the original vampire movie before talkies.

Your odds chart in the post appears to be faulty.  Where, for example, is Rick Scrotum?  Yeah, I know his name is Santorum by given the definition of santorum in the urban dictionary, I thought the computer might cesor the name.

Condoleeza Rice is also money down the drain.  If you feel the urge to be on her, I'll take your action.  She's an ugly  Black woman that every Black and 70% of women will vote against.  If she looked like Halle Berry she might have a chance of getting some White, middle class and upper class votes, but she looks like Howdy Doody (If you are under 50 google that in images and you'll see what I mean)   She's not funny like Whoopi Goldberg or entertaining at children's parties like Howdy Doody, so with no Blacks, no women, no Sarah Palin lovers, and the White Reoublicans putting up their own candidate to split the vote or staying home in droves, where would her votes come from?  Besides, Condie always looked like she thought Dubya was just the smartest, most handsome thing she had ever seen, and that Cheney was just a big teddy bear.  IMHO Condie's face would look better covered in Santorum.

The BEST BET ON THE BOARD is any Republican +150 over Obama.  As pointed out by others here, many liberals are disgusted with Obama, he's not what he represented himself to them as being.  He will not get the turn out he got last time.  That is reflected in the current polls which have Obama beating any of the current crop of Republkican cukcoos one on one, but which have Obama as a +112 dog to a generic republican.  If the Republicans can come up with someoine who can figure out that Cro Magnon man and the Neanderthals did not disappear when Noah forgot to put them in the ark, ie someone who is in the real world, not crazy or studpid, doesn't think his wife should have the baby if she is raped by Quasimodo, will start getting the banks to lend at reasonable rates in exchange for the taxpayer moiney that saved them, and who thinks that bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Warren Buffet, Jamie Dimon, Donald Trump, and General Electric ought to be higher taxes or at least equal taxes to everyone posting here, the Republicans would actually be favored to win.  The sane candidate on the horizon may be John "Hells Angel" Huntsman.  He may get some dissatisfied Dem vote because he was part of the Obama admistration, he's one of the good ole boys on that motorcycle, he has ot signed the abortion and is good looking so he will get the female vote, and he's super rich so the wealthy Republicans can identify, and he's a former business leader.  

Getting +150 on a bet on a propostion that should be -112 is a great value.  As an alternative, I recommend betting on "Hells Angel" Huntsman +450 (a big underlay) and hedging with  any Republican vs. Obama at +150 in a 3-1 ratio (for every $1 bet on Huntsman place $3 on any Republican.  You've got two value bets, and if Huntsman  takes it you'll win the Daily Double.  You can also hedge off on Obama if Huntsman gets the nomination and lessen your risk, and if Huntsman doesn't get the nomination you'll see be alive to make a profit with whoever does get it.  Don't forget, early polls be damned, no one has ever won a second term with unemployment above 8%.

.

Johnny, I did not see that you did comment on detroit above when I asked about it the last time.  Are you saying that the injection of cash into gm did not help gm?  Hard to believe that the cash put into the automotive industry by the government did not help detroit and the surrounding area and any other suppliers in michigan. Kudos to ford.  A good success story.  Buy America!  I would not even consider bailing out wall street without removing all of the executives involved in the games that got played.  They aren't rocket scientists and can be replaced.  And only if you are too big to fail, and if you are too big to fail you need to be carved up so that you are not too big to fail in the future.  Remove the existence of a safety net. Safety nets make it easy to play games at the expense of others.    

As a practical matter, regardless of how the word 'fascism' started or where its been, it has clearly evolved into its present-day connotation of being right-wing.  

Fascism was founded by Italian national syndicalists during World War I who combined left-wing and right-wing political views, but it gravitated to the right in the early 1920s.[16][17] The majority of scholars generally consider fascism to be on the far right,[18][1

There is nothing in the descriptiom below ]that has the traits of liberalism.  Just the opposite.

Fascism ( /ˈfæʃɪzəm/) is a radical, authoritarian nationalistpolitical ideology.[1][2] Fascists advocate the creation of a totalitariansingle-party state that seeks the mass mobilization of a nation through indoctrination, physical education, and family policy including eugenics.[3] Fascists seek to purge forces, ideas, and systems deemed to be the cause of decadence and degenerationand produce their nation's rebirth based on commitment to the national community based on organic unity where individuals are bound together by suprapersonal connections of ancestry, culture, and blood.[4] Fascists believe that a nation requires strong leadership, singular collective identity, and the will and ability to commit violence and wage war in order to keep the nation strong.[5]Fascist governments forbid and suppress opposition to the state.

Fascists promote violence and war as actions that create national regeneration, spirit and vitality.[7] Fascists exalt militarism as providing positive transformation in society, in providing spiritual renovation, education, instilling of a will to dominate in people's character, and creating national comradeship through military service.

Johnny, you say that you voted for obama. He specifically helped detroit and other parts of michigan.  How come you disapprove of him?  Is your disapproval the general sentiment in detroit and michigan despite the help?

Huntsman said he would not attack another Republican Candidate.... Today he officially declared for nomination and immediatly began to sl Mitt Romney & his hand in "Romneycare"