“Vegas Runner” has been featured by CNBC and ESPN – and is a columnist for Gaming Today – a weekly magazine distributed to all the major Las Vegas casinos. VR joined host RJ Bell for Friday’s “Today in Sports Betting” podcast. Here is the news from the interview . . .

Lopsided public action has two likely scenarios: a) The sportsbook does NOT like the opposite side the public is betting, so to avoid being too lopsided they move the line to induce action on the other side. The smart bettor either takes the extra points and fade the public or the smart bettor passes. B) The sportsbook DOES like the opposite side the public is betting, and thus is comfortable with being lopsided against the public, so the line stays steady. These scenarios are obvious at SportsbookSpy.com when the public percentage is over 70% but the line has not moved in that direction. The smart bettor either fades the public, or passes. Another possibility is the bookmaker is neutral, while big respected bettors play opposite the public; this results in the same effect – the public pounding one side while the line does not move, allowing you to bet the same side as the book (or sharp) at the same spread.

Lopsided sharp action has one likely scenario and one unlikely scenario. Likely is the bookmaker wants no part of being lopsided against the sharps, so the line is quickly moved. Soon after, those watching the “screen” follow the perceived sharp money, so before long the line has moved both in reaction to the initial sharp money and the steam chasers. The smart bettor does not have many options: the line has moved too much to follow and still offer value, but has not moved enough to offer value on the other side.

The unlikely scenario that rarely happens is the sharps play one side strong while the book likes the other side so much they are willing to be lopsided and thus keep the line steady. Few bookmakers in the modern era believe in their numbers enough to take such a stand.

 Click to play podcast and here VR and RJ discuss these concepts

Comment below: Do you consider line moves and public percents in your handicapping? If so, how exactly?

Related links:

VR’s Top 5 overrated and underrated teams this week [PregameBlogs.com]

Follow Vegas Runner on Twitter: @VegasRunner

Follow RJ on Twitter: @RJinVegas

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