Vegas Runner has been featured by ESPN and CNBC, and is a columnist for Gaming Today – he joins host “RJ Bell” on Friday’s “Today in Sports Betting”. News from the interview includes . . .

Underdogs still hold a significant NBA betting ATS edge as we approach the end of the first round. That hard fact has resulted in an unusual number of instances in which the majority of the public money has been on the underdog. (You can see bet percents on every game at www.SportsbookSpy.com). The public is typically bias toward the favorite, and when recent results incline the public to be bias toward the underdog, the two effects tend to counteract each other, resulting in games without macro bias – meaning that any value to be found will be found in the specifics of the game’s handicap.

The Atlanta Hawks are a prime example of a team in a situation in which the public has a “high friction to change opinion” – i.e., the average bettor didn’t consider them to be a great team, and even after an impressive first round upset over Orlando, the public will not be quick to change their general opinion about the Hawks. Bettors who believe the Hawks are better than average will be offered strong value by the marketplace.

If the public is on the right side of a majority of games in a series, they gain confidence in their assessment, and bet their opinion more aggressively in upcoming games – meaning any bias they may have will offer even greater value to the contrarian than usual.

The Boston Celtics are a team the public has drastically changed its opinion on. The “friction to change opinion” was low because the public was inclined to believe in the former champs, and even after months of underperforming during the regular season, and even after not covering the first two games at home versus the Knicks, the average bettor has quickly returned to their high opinion of the Celtics are two seemingly impressive victories in New York. (Although as AP’s lead NBA writer Brian Mahoney told Pregame.com recently, Amar’e Stoudemire was severely limited at the end of the series vs. the Celtics – playing at an estimated 50% effectiveness – calling into question how impressive the Celtics performance in New York truly was.)

The public typically “resets” its assessments between rounds of the playoff – moving back in the direction of its original feelings about a team. For example, whatever positive feelings generated from the win over the Magic, such feelings will be muted by a rationization that there was something specific about that series that no long applies in the next round. On the other hand, if a well regarded team struggles but still advances, the bad signs are for the most part overlooked (once again, something about that series that no longer applies in the public's mind).

Also discussed: a) Why Bulls may let down in game one; b) the problems of Oklahoma’s City’s Russell Wesbrook, c) what the Bulls relative lack of experience means to their title chances.

 LISTEN TO ENTIRE INTERVIEW with Vegas Runner

Related links:

 Heat/Celtics Betting preview with RJ and VR

 Four UFC videos from VR at www.Pregame.tv

Follow Vegas Runner on Twitter at @VegasRunner

Follow RJ Bell on Twitter at @RJinVegas

See all podcasts at www.PregamePodcasts.com

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