Well the first round of the NHL playoffs have come and gone. There
were some surprises along the way, with series' going to Game 7s and
all, but for the most part, the favored teams to open the series moved
on.
Both No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 and the No. 5 seeds in each
conference won their first round matchups. Not really any shock value
there, but let's just say I didn't expect so much chalk to move on
outside of the first two weeks. As we take a look at the current odds, provided by bodog, we
see most of the chalk is expected to get to the conference semifinals.
Makes sense, doesn't it? Let's take a look at some of the numbers
provided:
Odds to win Stanley Cup
Vancouver Canucks 11/4
Washington Caps 4/1
San Jose Sharks 5/1
Detroit Red Wings 11/2
Boston Bruins 8/1
Phildadelphia Flyers 8/1
Tampa Bay Lightning 12/1
Nashville Predators 14/1
At first glance, we see the oddsmakers are still LOVING Vancouver to win the Cup, even though they were pressed to 7 games with their first round opponent in the Vancouver Canucks. I still think they are the best, most talented team in the league, and at 2.75/1 (roughly) there still is some value left on the best team in hockey. Might be a wager some might like to take. I think the Sharks are OVERVALUED right now based on beating up Los Angeles in the first round. At just 5/1 to win the Cup? They have to go through two of the three best teams in the league at Detroit and Vancouver PLUS beating the Eastern Conference representative in the finals. I simply don't like it at just 5/1. Detroit's not bad at 5.5/1 but that's another bet I don't think we can make at this point. But then again, I don't see these prices getting any better as the rounds continue to move. For what it's worth, I don't think San Jose beats Detroit in this second round series anyway.
Series Prices
Nashville +220
Vancouver -260
If we learned anything from the first round, it's that good teams will be able to hang around with Vancouver in this post season. I like the Predators stock here at +220. They play a slower style of play compared to Vancouver (who doesn't) and that could cause the Canucks some fits in this series. Plus, these two squads split their regular season games 2-2. Definitely VALUE on Nashville to win this series.
Tampa Bay +165
Washington -190
Another series where the underdog has some value, as far as I'm concerned. I like Tampa Bay as I mentioned at the beginning of the post season. They have some serious goal scorers on this team and Washington does a pretty good job of keeping their opponents in the games, often in low-scoring affairs. The Caps did take four of six games against the Lightning this season and outscored Tampa Bay 19-10 in those games. A -190 price for Washington isn't terrible, but I think there's more value in Tampa Bay in this series.
Detroit -110
San Jose -110
Two extremely closely matched teams here. Homer in me says Detroit wins in six games, but I know San Jose is a good club. Last year, the Sharks knocked out Detroit in five games. This year I think it's closer, especially with Detroit at full strength. Here's all you need to know: San Jose has won 8 of the past 10 matchups with Detroit, including beating them 3-1 in four games this season, but the series price has both teams at -110. Call me crazy, but I think Detroit is the way to go in this matchup between two very good clubs.
Thoughts?
Tomorrow we will look at the Boston/Philadelphia series as well as both NHL Game 1s set up.