In basketball gyms from coast to coast, 64 of the very best college teams march through the brackets during the next three weeks on the way to the NCAA Tournament Final Four. Sports fans passionately debate the merits of certain conferences, or what it really means to be a certain seed, but in the end the Las Vegas math tells the true story.

3% chance FOUR #1 seeds make the Final Four

14% chance ZERO #1 seeds make the Final Four

15% chance a #2 seed will win Tournament

17% chance a ACC team will win the Tournament

20% chance a Big East team will win Tournament

21% chance a Big 12 team will win Tournament

25% chance a Big 10 team will win Tournament

50% chance a #1 seed will win Tournament.

56% chance a #14, #15, or #16 seed will win one game

57% chance a #13 seed will win one game

64% chance Hampton will have the lead against Duke at SOME POINT in the game

Number of wins by #1 seeds: Over/Under 13 wins

Number of wins by #2 seeds: Over/Under 9 wins

Number of Tournament Wins for Big East: Over/Under 16 wins

Number of Tournament Wins for Big Ten: Over/Under 10 wins

Number of points for Jimmer Fredette vs. Wofford: Over/Under 29.5 points

The odds above are True Odds – the only odds format that accurately represents the actual likelihood of an outcome. Nearly all odds published elsewhere have failed to remove the sportsbook commission, which varies dramatically between outlets and has no legitimate effect on the likelihood on an outcome. Without commission removal, odds significantly underestimate the chance of an outcome occurring. Logic dictates that adding the percentage chance of all possible outcomes of an event should equal 100% (as the True Odds above do); adding all possible outcomes of odds without commission removed will often equal 80% or less – proving their misleading and inaccurate nature.

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