68 men’s college basketball teams begin March Madness on Tuesday, and battle through the next three weekends, culminating with the Final Four.Over 100 million Americans are expected to take part in the 2011 NCAA Basketball Tournament brackets, risking an estimated $3 Billion dollars in online and office bracket pools.Some are big college bball fans who pick their bracket like a science, while others have not watched a game all season, picking by seedings, and flashes of insight gained from SportsCenter, the newspaper, or the color uniforms of the teams.Tourney Brackets are social and fun, and you can win a lot by only risking a little. These 2011 NCAA Basketball Tournament bracket tips are historically proven rules, advice, and bracket strategy that will help novices and the experts alike fill out their brackets.NCAA Tournament - FIRST ROUND:Pick no more than two seeds worse than #12.#16 seeds are 0 for 104 in the modern era (since 1985).#15 seeds are 4 for 104.#13 and #14 seeds win only 18% of first round games combined.Don't be shy about picking upsets with #12 through #9 seeds.Give special consideration to picking #12 seeds: #12 seeds have won at least one game 20 of 22 years.#9 seeds have won over half their games (54%) vs. #8 seeds.NCAA Tournament - SECOND ROUND:Advance #1 seeds almost automatically into the 3rd round.#1 seeds win their first two games 88% of the time.Keep advancing the #12 and #10 seeds you picked to win in Round One.These teams win about half the time in Round Two (#12s are actually win more than 50% in the second round). A double digit seed has made the Sweet Sixteen 24 of 26 years. Only once in 26 years has all the top three seeds (#1, #2, #3) made the Sweet Sixteen. Seeds worse than #12 DO NOT win in the 2nd round. Only 6 of 416 teams that have advanced past Round 2 were seeded worse than #12.NCAA Tournament - THIRD ROUND (Sweet 16):Advance exactly three #1 seeds into the Elite 8.72% of #1 seeds advance into the 4th round (that's a higher percentage than #5 seeds who win a single game)!Advance no team worse than a #11 seed into the Elite 824 have made it to the Sweet 16, but only 1 has ever advanced.NCAA Tournament - FOURTH ROUND (Elite 8):Advance exactly ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four.The Final Four has included exactly one or two #1 seeds 21 of the last 26 years (meaning that only 5 times on 26 years has there been either zero, three, or four number one seeds)Advance no team worse than a #8 seed to the Final Four.Only 2 of 104 Final Four teams have been seeded worse than #8.NCAA Tournament - FINAL FOUR:Advance NO team worse than a 6th seed to the Championship game.Not a single one has made it in the last 25 years.CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: Pick a #4 seed or better to win it all.For 22 straight years the champion has been a #4 seed or better!The posting forum will be overflowing with free NCAA tournament picks and predications, and here are some online sportsbooks to check updated tourney lines and odds.Related reading: True Odds of a Perfect NCAA Tournament BracketFeedback . . . What tourney bracket tips, rules, advice, and strategy do you follow?How many brackets will you personally fill out?Do you like a 68 or 64 team tournament?Do you like betting on games, or gambling on NCAA tourney brackets more?
very interesting stats, I will save this for future reference
Feedback? Here goes:
BRACKETS | GENERAL
1. START w/YOUR FINAL 4...& WORK BACKWARDS
Especially If we've watched a great number of Hoops
BRACKET PICK WINNERS COMMONLY STARTING w/PICKING
THEIR FINAL 4 of 8 or 16
FIRST
& WORKING BACKWARDS FROM THERE....
Really looking deeper into these Selected Teams this way Just have appears so much more uncluttered
Then paying spacial attention to specific (+/-) Matchups w/
Size/Coaching/Experience - the usual thingsin many configurations of potential games
Try it - I assure you when your done you will truly be amazed how sharp it appears
SEPARATING TEAMS, WHEN MANY FACTORS SEEM GENERALLY EVEN :
2. TEMPO - SLOWER TEAMS MOVE ON
WHEN THINGS LOOK EQUAL, SLOWER, PROFICIENT &/or HALF-COURT TEAMS
3. ESPECIALLY DELIBERATE TEAMS W/ 1+ LEGIT, CREATIVE SCORER
Both these factors have given Teams a small yet critical advantages over Up-Tempo Teams
Going back in time, this is just a fact
Some very good Double-Quick Teams have gone on the F-4
OR WON (KU | Duke | UNC)
Yet they have almost always been the Elite
However, countless deliberate teams have reached Final-4
In place of potent racehorse teams - w/far more talent & higher rankings
JUST TO NAME A FEW:
2000 Wisconsin (Bennett Ball), Michigan State
2002 Indiana
2003 Texas (Penders Not so slow, yet pressure D)
2004 Okla St (E Sutton's Tms)
2005 Michigan State
2006 George Mason, LSU, UCLA
2007 Georgetown, UCLA
2008 UCLA
2009 Michigan State
2010 Michigan State, Butler, West Virginia
IDEAL EXAMPLES
Methodical, Smash-mouth Zito Michigan State Teams
Ben Howland's Meatgrinder UCLA Three-peat of Final 4 Teams
Teams that CAN can play slower & slower
When a Team is proficient & MORE comfortable w/ever limited possessions
(w/a Big-Shot Guy ...or two)
They have a great shot at getting thru
OBVIOUSLY, PICKING BRACKETS IS MORE ABOUT TEAMS MOVING
THAN TEAMS COVERING POINT SPREADS
BRACKET CONTESTS IDEAS:
1. FLIP-FLOP's
Another great strategy (that truly has worked for myself & several close colleagues
Entering a good number of free contest
(as many as you can find time for, of course...w/well researched Final-4)
FLIP-FLOP one OR TWO 8-9's..in different contests (back to our HEDGE Theory)
It can mean the difference between getting in Tie Breaks or winning one or two
2. 5-12 GAMES
GAMES/MOST NEED OF SERIOUS ANALYSIS, & TOUGHEST TO READ
(despite so much 7-10 Talk)
#1. 5-12's
#2. 6-11's
& a trusting our capping instincts when/if the 12 just looks like it has size/coaching/or any number of efficiency advantages
ALL PRETTY OBVIOUS STUFF -
Just see so many guys work from the 1-16 on down
w/out trying a different approach, one that has proven successful alternative ... just worth mentioning
Wow. Great stuff.
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