Bracket Tips - 2011 NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracket Strategy, Rules, and Advice

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Bracket Tips - 2011 NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracket Strategy, Rules, and Advice

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68 men’s college basketball teams begin March Madness on Tuesday, and battle through the next three weekends, culminating with the Final Four.

Over 100 million Americans are expected to take part in the 2011 NCAA Basketball Tournament  brackets, risking an estimated $3 Billion dollars in online and office bracket pools.

Some are big college bball fans who pick their bracket like a science, while others have not watched a game all season, picking by seedings, and flashes of insight gained from SportsCenter, the newspaper, or the color uniforms of the teams.

Tourney Brackets are social and fun, and you can win a lot by only risking a little. These 2011 NCAA Basketball Tournament bracket tips are historically proven rules, advice, and bracket strategy that will help novices and the experts alike fill out their brackets.

NCAA Tournament - FIRST ROUND:

Pick no more than two seeds worse than #12.
#16 seeds are 0 for 104 in the modern era (since 1985).
#15 seeds are 4 for 104.
#13 and #14 seeds win only 18% of first round games combined.

Don't be shy about picking upsets with #12 through #9 seeds.
Give special consideration to picking #12 seeds: #12 seeds have won at least one game 20 of 22 years.

#9 seeds have won over half their games (54%) vs. #8 seeds.

NCAA Tournament - SECOND ROUND:

Advance #1 seeds almost automatically into the 3rd round.
#1 seeds win their first two games 88% of the time.

Keep advancing the #12 and #10 seeds you picked to win in Round One.
These teams win about half the time in Round Two (#12s are actually win more than 50% in the second round). A double digit seed has made the Sweet Sixteen 24 of 26 years. Only once in 26 years has all the top three seeds (#1, #2, #3) made the Sweet Sixteen.

Seeds worse than #12 DO NOT win in the 2nd round.
Only 6 of 416 teams that have advanced past Round 2 were seeded worse than #12.

NCAA Tournament - THIRD ROUND (Sweet 16):

Advance exactly three #1 seeds into the Elite 8.
72% of #1 seeds advance into the 4th round (that's a higher percentage than #5 seeds who win a single game)!

Advance no team worse than a #11 seed into the Elite 8
24 have made it to the Sweet 16, but only 1 has ever advanced.

NCAA Tournament - FOURTH ROUND (Elite 8):

Advance exactly ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four.
The Final Four has included exactly one or two #1 seeds 21 of the last 26 years (meaning that only 5 times on 26 years has there been either zero, three, or four number one seeds)

Advance no team worse than a #8 seed to the Final Four.
Only 2 of 104 Final Four teams have been seeded worse than #8.

NCAA Tournament - FINAL FOUR:

Advance NO team worse than a 6th seed to the Championship game.
Not a single one has made it in the last 25 years.

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME:
 

Pick a #4 seed or better to win it all.
For 22 straight years the champion has been a #4 seed or better!

The posting forum will be overflowing with free NCAA tournament picks and predications, and here are some online sportsbooks to check updated tourney lines and odds.

Related reading: True Odds of a Perfect NCAA Tournament Bracket

Feedback . . .

What tourney bracket tips, rules, advice, and strategy do you follow?

How many brackets will you personally fill out?

Do you like a 68 or 64 team tournament?

Do you like betting on games, or gambling on NCAA tourney brackets more?

  • very interesting stats, I will save this for future reference

  • Feedback?  Here goes:

    BRACKETS | GENERAL

    1. START w/YOUR FINAL 4...& WORK BACKWARDS

    Especially If we've watched a great number of Hoops

    BRACKET PICK WINNERS COMMONLY STARTING w/PICKING

    THEIR FINAL 4 of 8 or 16

    FIRST

    & WORKING BACKWARDS FROM THERE....

    Really looking deeper into these Selected Teams this way Just have appears so much more uncluttered

    Then paying spacial attention to specific (+/-) Matchups w/

    Size/Coaching/Experience - the usual thingsin many configurations of potential games

    Try it - I assure you when your done you will truly be amazed how sharp it appears

    SEPARATING TEAMS, WHEN MANY FACTORS SEEM GENERALLY EVEN :

    2. TEMPO - SLOWER TEAMS MOVE ON

    WHEN THINGS LOOK EQUAL, SLOWER, PROFICIENT &/or HALF-COURT TEAMS

    3. ESPECIALLY DELIBERATE TEAMS W/ 1+ LEGIT, CREATIVE SCORER

    Both these factors have given Teams a small yet critical advantages over Up-Tempo Teams

    Going back in time, this is just a fact

    Some very good Double-Quick Teams have gone on the F-4

    OR WON (KU | Duke | UNC)

    Yet they have almost always been the Elite

    However, countless deliberate teams have reached Final-4

    In place of potent racehorse teams - w/far more talent & higher rankings

    JUST TO NAME A FEW:  

      2000 Wisconsin (Bennett Ball), Michigan State

      2002 Indiana

      2003 Texas (Penders Not so slow, yet pressure D)

      2004 Okla St (E Sutton's Tms)

      2005 Michigan State

      2006 George Mason, LSU, UCLA  

      2007 Georgetown, UCLA

      2008 UCLA

      2009 Michigan State

      2010 Michigan State, Butler, West Virginia

    IDEAL EXAMPLES

    Methodical, Smash-mouth Zito Michigan State Teams

    Ben Howland's Meatgrinder UCLA Three-peat of Final 4 Teams

    Teams that CAN can play slower & slower

    When a Team is proficient & MORE comfortable w/ever limited possessions

    (w/a Big-Shot Guy ...or two)

    They have a great shot at getting thru

    OBVIOUSLY, PICKING BRACKETS IS MORE ABOUT TEAMS MOVING

    THAN TEAMS COVERING POINT SPREADS

    BRACKET CONTESTS IDEAS:

    1. FLIP-FLOP's

    Another great strategy (that truly has worked for myself & several close colleagues

    Entering a good number of free contest

    (as many as you can find time for, of course...w/well researched Final-4)

    FLIP-FLOP one OR TWO 8-9's..in different contests (back to our HEDGE Theory)

    It can mean the difference between getting in Tie Breaks or winning one or two

    2. 5-12 GAMES

    GAMES/MOST NEED OF SERIOUS ANALYSIS, & TOUGHEST TO READ

    (despite so much 7-10 Talk)

      #1. 5-12's  

      #2. 6-11's

    & a trusting our capping instincts when/if the 12 just looks like it has size/coaching/or any number of efficiency advantages

    ALL PRETTY OBVIOUS STUFF -

    Just see so many guys work from the 1-16 on down

    w/out trying a different approach, one that has proven successful alternative ... just worth mentioning

  • Wow. Great stuff.

  • This Pregame.com reporting featured by Fox Sports! http://on-msn.com/hm98sp

  • Colin Cowherd quoted from this Pregame.com reporting on today's show!

  • Listen to Colin Cowherd use Pregame.com reporting: http://tinyurl.com/4sqfzyg

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