Opener:
The midweek winds to a close with some less intense games, but definitely ones with better angles to pursue - a team or two coming home, a few getting tired on the road, a rematch, and of course, plenty of injuries to track.
Can I convince a non-bettor to care about 80% of this card? Nope. Luckily, though, that's why we're here.
Sports Wagering: NBA
Portland Trailblazers @ Charlotte Bobcats with a total of N/A;
Charlotte might officially be in the radioactive category - they might get massive line value on a nightly basis between now and, well, when they win again, but this team is simply playing so horribly that I can't in good faith tell anyone to back them. As far as Portland is concerned, they won in Orlando and Miami, and they're hot. In fact, they beat Charlotte, at home, by 24 in the game just prior to this road trip. I don't want to back the Blazers with the Bobcats on revenge from that ugly loss, and I don't want to back the Blazers between games with Orlando, Miami and next, Atlanta. This is the sandwich affair, and I only wish we had any reason to act on Charlotte's behalf. Perhaps Tyrus Thomas and Stephen Jackson will play, and maybe then they'll have a little confidence? Sigh. Lean to CHARLOTTE and the OVER.
Los Angeles Clippers (-2.5) @ New Jersey Nets with a total of 191.5;
The Nets came through with a gusty win over the Warriors, netting us (pun intended) a nice little win on Wednesday in their first game without Deron Williams. However, his absence might just catch up with Jersey in this game. Why? Simple - Jersey was able to beat the Warriors because of Lopez and Humphries in the paint, dominating the glass. They won't be able to crush the Clippers near the rim the way they did the Warriors. Blake Griffin is a monster, and both DeAndre Jordan and Chris Kaman can rebound, as well. I like the confidence the Clips are showing, and they actually lost to the Nets, at home, way back in November. I also like that this is not the end of the Clippers road trip, so they'll try to keep the momentum going. The Nets host Boston next, so there's a slight potential to look to that game. Lean to CLIPPERS and the OVER.
Boston Celtics (-2) @ Philadelphia 76ers with a total of 188;
Boston's been an ATS mess lately because of porous defense, while Philadelphia continues to storm along, outside of a tough overtime loss to the Thunder in their most recent game. My concern with betting the side in this game is simply that the Sixers are going to try to bounce back from a heartbreaking defeat, while Boston laying only 2 is almost like a pick-the-winner spot. I believe this game will be hotly contested, since Philadelphia has done a nice job of hanging with Boston both times these teams have met, and though the Sixers haven't won either of those games, they've covered both. Not much else to say about this game - both teams want it, no real scheduling quirks, and no huge revenge angles, since the previous meetings occurred in December. PASS on the side, slight totals lean to the OVER, courtesy of Boston's weakened defense.
Indiana Pacers @ Toronto Raptors with a total of N/A;
Let's see, who is sucking harder? Is it Toronto, losers of 3 straight and 5 of 6? Is it Indy, losers of 5 in a row, and a team that somehow managed to shoot 29% for a GAME in Minnesota? Tough call. I guess Indiana is coming off the uglier game, and it at least looks like Toronto is trying a little more? I'm not sure I can advocate backing Indiana right now - this team is in freefall, and even though I tend to like teams to bounce back off nauseating performances like the one the Pacers had in Minneapolis, Toronto is the team on double revenge in this matchup, and even though Toronto's lost 3 straight, one of those was in 3-OT in London, and the most recent was a 2-point defeat at the hands of the Jazz. I think I'd probably value the double revenge and slightly better recent efforts at a little more important than the bounceback factor, so very small lean to TORONTO and the OVER, since I can't imagine Indy shoots under 30% again...can they?
Detroit Pistons @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-9) with a total of 206.5;
Let's get revenge out of the way quickly - these teams played on the second day of the regular season, and Oklahoma won by a single point in Motown. No one remembers that game. The more important stats on this game are that Detroit is playing an up-tempo brand of basketball, seemingly not concerned with results as much as just getting through the season without in-fighting. Fortunately, things were so bad in Detroit, that just "not fighting" for 48 minutes has been enough to cover some big spreads. Unfortunately, spreads are slowly coming down. Detroit was catching 12+ in San Antonio, and that's down to just 9 here. If I'm taking the Pistons, I'd want double digits. On the total, both teams are focused on scoring only - this might be a hair inflated, but I still think if the teams shoot the ball near their season average, we could squeak out a 210ish final score. PASS on the side, totals lean OVER.
Atlanta Hawks @ Chicago Bulls with a total of N/A;
And just when Chicago looked like the best team in the East, Carlos Boozer goes down with an ankle injury. He'll be back, but it does slow Chicago down just a hair. The question for us, though, isn't so much how Chicago will deal with his absence, since we know they can still win games a man short, but instead, whether Chicago can finally overcome the Hawks. I also wonder if the betting public will put more stock in Chicago's hot play or Atlanta's recent stretch of solid play against these very Bulls. I'm inclined to think the public is going to side with red-hot Chicago (pun intended, again), but then, what do I know. We should get a slightly deflated line with the Bulls in this game, thanks to Boozer's injury, so with revenge on the brain, I can't help but think I'm going to end up with the rest of the 4-sided fellas...square lean to CHICAGO and the OVER.
Utah Jazz @ Minnesota Timberwolves with a total of N/A;
I'm hoping we see a line that gives the Wolves some points, but something tells me it's going to look an awful lot like what we saw when the Jazz visited Toronto - very short. Utah is struggling to figure things out the second half of the year, and even though they've looked, let's say, a tiny bit more respectable the last week, some of that can just be pinned on playing beatable teams. The Jazz might get Mehmet Okur back, but I'm not sure he'll make much of a difference with the way that team plays (or doesn't play) defense. The Wolves, meanwhile, seem to be getting into another of those short stretches of games where they find ways to cover big numbers. This would be the 3rd or 4th time this year Minny has looked capable of covering, but because I'm expecting them to need to win to cover this one (or stay within a bucket), that might be asking a bit much. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Minnesota get its first division win in March, but I doubt it's a greater than 53% shot. Tiny lean to the WOLVES, and I mean tiny, and the UNDER.
Sacramento Kings @ San Antonio Spurs (-11.5) with a total of 208;
I don't know if the Spurs are necessarily slowing down, but it seems like the team's desire to crush opponents isn't what it was a few months ago. Sure, San Antonio made a statement in their win against the Heat, but the team has only covered 2 of 8 games since the Break, and lost the game right before the Break, as well. It just seems like the intensity isn't the same, and the first thing to go is usually defense. Teams are pretty consistently shooting in the mid-to-high 40% range against the Spurs, and that's allowing clubs to stay within 10 points. Will that be the case, here? I'm inclined to think that it will be. The Kings got blasted at home by the Spurs a little over a month back, so the Kings are on revenge, and on top of that, the Kings are still showing the ability to hang with most teams in the NBA, just not actually get a "W" against many of them. I think the Kings can stay inside that dozen - lean to the KINGS and the OVER.
Orlando Magic (-5) @ Golden State Warriors with a total of 207.5;
It doesn't happen all that often, but in this particular case, the Magic are the team in the better travel situation, even though they're on the road. Golden State returns from a 7-game road trip that wrapped up with a loss in Jersey on Wednesday. This team hasn't rested in quite some time, so this first game back is a true sluggish spot. Yes, it is a tad disconcerting that the Magic beat the hell out of the Warriors when these teams met in Florida in mid-January, but Orlando's size advantage against a team that doesn't rebound that well cannot be overstated. The Warriors struggle with big teams (as well as teams that play like themselves, but better, like the Suns). The Warriors have success against balanced teams where they can try to exploit matchups. Here, Orlando should win the rebound battle, and it's tough to see the Warriors overcoming that, if indeed the Magic play with some heart. Yes, the first game home angle outweighs the revenge in this one - lean to the MAGIC and the UNDER.