NBA Previews: NBA on TNT, Battle for Florida (3/3/11)

Wed, Mar 2 2011 8:31 PM

Comments 79

Opener:

It's that time again - TNT time. Generally, Thursdays bring us extremely short NBA cards, but often the most compelling games of the week.

This is an interesting time in the season, if only because the rest of the week has been notable for its interconference showdowns, and now tonight we're getting two division rivalries, one of which is important for Eastern Conference dominance, and the other to see which altitude-based team got a better trade deadline haul.

Let's crack these nuts.

Sports Wagering: NBA

Orlando Magic @ Miami Heat (-5) with a total of 198.5;

Doesn't this game just feel like it has all the makings of an epic finish? My gut has certainly been wrong before (see yesterday's prediction that the Warriors would just barely sneak under the number in Indianapolis), but with the way this season series has unfurled, I can't help but feel this game gets that playoff feel. The first meeting, way back in October, Miami crushed Orlando by 26, easily covering a short 3.5-point spread and keeping the total 22 points under the posted mark of 188; the second meeting occurred a month later, and the Magic got their revenge, beating Miami by 9, covering their own 3.5-point chalk in a game that went over the posted mark of 189 by 10 points. Flash forward to meeting 3, much more recent, and the Magic lost, at home, as a 1-point favorite, allowing the Heat to shoot 50% from the field and send the total over by a handful. Now, finally, back in Miami, the Heat laying the biggest number of any game in this season series, but each game's final result getting closer, and each game has actually had a higher total each time. I think one of those trends continues, namely, the close result, and I think the other breaks - that is, I expect a little more defense from both sides, a tempo more like the first meeting, but the Magic will shoot better than 30% from the field. Miami, as you've gathered, leads the season series 2-1, and I fully expect a red-hot, motivated Dwight Howard to completely dominate the paint, and if he can stay out of foul trouble, force this game to stay close the whole way through. A final note - these teams have taken 150, 152 and 157 shots in their meetings - a tempo that should look more like a mid/high 180's final score, not 200. I lean to ORLANDO and the UNDER.

Heat-Magic Has All the Ingredients of a Rivalry...Soon [Miami Herald]

Denver Nuggets @ Utah Jazz (-3) with a total of 210;

The Nuggets are actually a pretty fun team to watch these days, with that Melo-shaped monkey off their back and one of the deepest rosters in the NBA on display. Of course, 2 games into his altitude career, Danilo Gallinari is out for 2 weeks with a broken toe, but the depth is still pretty substantial. Maybe the most amazing part of the post-trade Nuggets play is the team's energy on defense. See, the talent has always been there - Denver has (and had) some extremely gifted athletes that, if they bothered, could certainly play some defense. Nene is a mobile big, Ty Lawson is quick as heck, J.R. Smith is extremely strong for his size, Kenyon Martin is best suited to play defense, and now they've added a stout leader in Ray Felton, and shot-blocking wings named Chandler and Gallo. The issue here isn't skill, since Denver has the edge in that department - the issue is energy. If Denver fatigues, which they very well might given the back-to-back games being played at an elevation, Utah could exploit the somewhat discombobulated Nuggets offense by forcing more outside shots and then run on a tired Denver defense. The easy play in this game is on Denver, for sure. They're playing better (covering 5 straight with a Charlotte game pending), and actually defending some, as noted above. Utah is focused entirely on the offensive end, scoring 218 points in their last 2 games, combined, but allowing a ridiculous 227. Utah is playing at a breakneck speed, which doesn't make a ton of sense given that the team's strength is on the interior. But hey, who am I to judge? That team is trying to find a post-Sloan identity, and the quest continues. In terms of the season series, Utah lost its season-opener in Denver, but won there a month ago, so I'm inclined to think that, though Denver's roster looks pretty different, they might have about a quarter-point worth of revenge floating around, and the only scheduling note is that Denver is coming off a game yesterday. We don't have much to work with, in terms of the Nuggets new roster playing back-to-back games, though they did seem to poop out in the 4th quarter in Portland a few days back. The team is deep enough to have success in fatigue spots, so, while I'd love to back Utah to get some confidence-boosting win, I think I have to ride the hot hand. Leans to DENVER and the OVER.

New Nuggets Clickin' [Bleacher Report]

Handicapping, NBA, NBA Previews, Basketball, Dan Bebe, Blog, Pregame

Comments

Dan Bebe

Thu, Mar 3 2011 8:58 PM

NEW BLOG NEW BLOG NEW BLOG!!

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jaybiz773

Thu, Mar 3 2011 8:55 PM

Take it indeed!!!!! I still don't know how I hit the under/side/2H side/Parlay???

Nucking Futz my friend nucking futz!!!!!
Tree Killer

Thu, Mar 3 2011 8:53 PM

Thanks you sir may I have another...
Dan Bebe

Thu, Mar 3 2011 8:50 PM

Not really sure how we won that Under, but we'll take it!
Titus00

Thu, Mar 3 2011 8:49 PM

DEN 2H over 105.5 for a 1/2 unit!
jon1one2

Thu, Mar 3 2011 8:07 PM

Bang Under!
Hags58

Thu, Mar 3 2011 8:05 PM

From A to Zinc
Fullmarx

Thu, Mar 3 2011 7:46 PM

Danno - late to the game here but will pile on. The writeups on the games you don't play are just as informative as those that you do. As one who still has his capping training wheels on, it helps me get in a good mindset to know how to rate games, eliminate leans, recognize "auto pass" situations, understand how to parse through a big card to find the value, etc. Great info throughout.
Gub

Thu, Mar 3 2011 7:29 PM

Only in the NBA,.. Mia up by 18 at half gets outscored by Orl by 23 to take a 5 point lead at 7minute mark.
Dan Bebe

Thu, Mar 3 2011 5:10 PM

Sorry G, just how I feel...
guevones

Thu, Mar 3 2011 5:06 PM

It all depends on what you are looking for. If you're looking for NBA, then there is simply not a better place to start your capping than the Dan Bebe NBA blog. Period. But, you do have to venture out of here and into the PG forums and other stats sites, and you have to work with the stats, scheduling, motivational, and fundamental angles on your own to get a full grip over the NBA (if that is possible).

I am barely playing any CBB this yr so I haven't been in the PG foums much lately. Just come straight here. But, I don't necessarily think we're doing "group-think" here if that's what anyone is getting at. If so, then yes, that can become an impediment.

Dan, you do agree that I lower the Bebe blog's IQ by 2-3 pts? But I was only kidding! Man, that hurts. (I would say only -0.5 to -1 IQ drop).
jaybiz773

Thu, Mar 3 2011 4:50 PM

My $0.02 on halftime bets....

I use them to get better lines on the game. So take NOH@TOR for example. I had this game circled as its game one of a 5 game roadie. My line was NOH -2. The line comes out at -5.5 so a pass for me. Tor goes on a run early and is up 15 at the half. I got down on NOH -6.5 for the second half (or NOH +8.5 for the game). Tor wins by 6...ticket CASHED!

btw Betus is back at 5.5 on Orl, glad i jumped on that 6 when i had the chance!!!
Dan Bebe

Thu, Mar 3 2011 4:50 PM

Haha, maybe something of a peninsula
Arnold Rothstein

Thu, Mar 3 2011 4:47 PM

i see

you are worried Bebe Nation is becoming an island
TarainSC

Thu, Mar 3 2011 4:44 PM

guevones-- I like the idea of Denver 1H. Sometimes when I do my capping the idea of halftime lines kind of goes to the back of my head and gets lost.

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