The leading stars in Hollywood gather for the 83rd Academy Awards, which will be broadcast to 200 countries on ABC at 8:00 ET on Sunday night from the Kodak Theatre in Los Angeles. The Oscars are the biggest awards show of the year, and the 2011 Oscar odds are the best predictor of the names that will appear in those famous envelopes.
Oscar Odds 2011 (presented by projected win percentage):
Odds to Win Best Picture:
| 127 hours |
0.9% |
117 |
to |
1 |
| Black Swan |
2.1% |
47 |
to |
1 |
| Inception |
1.7% |
58 |
to |
1 |
| Fighter |
2.1% |
47 |
to |
1 |
| Kids All Right |
0.4% |
233 |
to |
1 |
| Kings Speech |
70.2% |
0.4 |
to |
1 |
| Social Network |
19.1% |
4 |
to |
1 |
| Toy Story 3 |
0.6% |
175 |
to |
1 |
| True Grit |
2.4% |
41 |
to |
1 |
| Winter's Bone |
0.6% |
175 |
to |
1 |
Note: Kings Speech is trending, and has the positive sentiment advantage.
Odds to Win Best Director
| Darren Aronofsky |
5.1% |
18 |
to |
1 |
| David Fincher |
55.0% |
1 |
to |
1 |
| David Russell |
1.3% |
76 |
to |
1 |
| Coen's |
2.1% |
46 |
to |
1 |
| Tom Hooper |
36.4% |
2 |
to |
1 |
Odds to Win Best Actor
| Colin Firth |
86.3% |
0.16 |
to |
1 |
| James Franco |
4.7% |
20 |
to |
1 |
| Javier Bardem |
2.2% |
45 |
to |
1 |
| Jeff Bridges |
3.4% |
28 |
to |
1 |
| Jesse Eisenberg |
3.4% |
28 |
to |
1 |
Note: Firth - Classic advantage of role with disability.
Odds to Win Best Actress
| Annette Bening |
11.9% |
7 |
to |
1 |
| Jennifer Lawrence |
3.1% |
32 |
to |
1 |
| Michelle Williams |
1.3% |
74 |
to |
1 |
| Natalie Portman |
82.4% |
0.21 |
to |
1 |
| Nicole Kidman |
1.3% |
74 |
to |
1 |
Odds to Win Best Supporting Actor
| Christian Bale |
71.0% |
0.41 |
to |
1 |
| Geoffery Rush |
14.5% |
6 |
to |
1 |
| Jeremy Renner |
1.0% |
100 |
to |
1 |
| John Hawkes |
12.3% |
7.14 |
to |
1 |
| Mark Ruffalo |
1.2% |
83 |
to |
1 |
Note: Bale – weight loss, classic – but some consider him to be a jerk.
Odds to Win Best Supporting Actress
| Amy Adams |
3.3% |
29 |
to |
1 |
| Hailee Steinfeld |
24.4% |
3 |
to |
1 |
| Helena Carter |
11.4% |
8 |
to |
1 |
| Jacki Weaver |
2.1% |
46.95 |
to |
1 |
| Melissa Leo |
58.8% |
1 |
to |
1 |
Note: Leo has turned people offer, maybe the cute kid Steinfeld wins?
Big Favorites (non-major categories)
Best Visual Effects:
Inception ($110 wins $10)
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Aaron Sorkin for Social Network ($250 wins $10)
Best Animated Feature Film
Toy Story 3 ($500 wins $10)
Smaller Favorites (non-manager)
Best Foreign Language Film:
Biutiful ($12 wins $10)
Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
David Seidler for King’s Speech ($40 wins $10)
Best Art Direction
Kings Speech ($10 wins $10)
Odds to Win Best Cinematography
True Grit ($20 wins $10)
Best Costume Design
King’s Speech ($11 wins $10)
Best Documentary (Feature)
Inside Job ($16 wins $10)
Best Film Editing
Social Network ($30 wins $10)
Best Makeup
The Wolfman ($28 wins $10)
Odds to Win Best Music (Original Score)
Trent Reznor for The Social Network ($11 wins $10)
Odds to Win Best Music (Original Song)
We Belong Together ($15 wins $10)
Best Short Film (Live Action)
Wish 143 ($10 wins $17)
It's interesting to note that Las Vegas does NOT accept gambling on the Oscars (in Nevada the event must be decided on the field and be able to be determined by a boxscore). Entertainment type betting is where the best online sportsbooks really differentiate themselves.
Related Content:
2011 Oscar Predictions [E Online]
Oscar Cheatsheet [MTV]
Picks with Analysis from Multiple Experts [Pregame Forums]
RJ Bell Talking Oscar Odds [ESPN LA radio]
Professional Bettor Talk Oscar Betting [Pregame.tv]
Comment on . . .
Do you see any value in 2011 Oscar betting?
Will you watch the Oscars live, or DVR them?