Analysis:
12:10pm ET / 9:10am PT
*Note the TIME CHANGE in this game
#957-958
PITTSBURGH PIRATES w/ Nova @ ATLANTA BRAVES w/ Colon
2** Play on: OVER the TOTAL
*These are not actual plays, but we do have some additional Over / Under OPINIONS for Thursday’s action if you have a hankering to wager on multiple games. Based on our Home Plate Umpire projections and each team’s current form… we would consider some action on these two games that will be played in Thursday night. Consider them FREE opinions:
Reds @ Indians OVER the TOTAL (Adelman vs Clevinger) …
Rangers @ Red Sox OVER the TOTAL (Martinez vs Pomeranz)...
3*** Writeup:
Last Thursday, we rode the PIRATES to an ‘Over-EASY’ afternoon winner in their home game versus the Washington Nationals. The OU line in that one was 9.5 runs… and the final score was 10 to 4. We’re going right BACK to the Buccos this Thursday with another OVER, as they complete their four game road series with the Atlanta Braves at 12:10pm ET (9:10am PT). Not that we’ll need it, but it’s comforting to know that we might get an assist from Mother Nature on Thursday afternoon. As we type this at 5:00pm ET on Wednesday, we already know that the winds are projected to be blowing out to Left Field in the 10-15 MPH range. The longer-range forecast for our THURSDAY afternoon play is even better: OUT to Left Field in the range of 15-20 miles per hour. That’ll be a potential PLUS in a Ballpark that has already seen a LOT of OVERS so far this season.
We like the Batter vs Pitcher stats in this one…
Current PITTSBURGH PIRATE hitters are averaging .303 in their careers vs Bartolo Colon (also .395 slugging percentage).
Current ATLANTA BRAVE hitters are averaging .293 in their careers vs Ivan Nova (also .493 slugging percentage).
For the Pirates, starting pitcher Ivan Nova started out the season really hot. FIVE Quality Starts in a row in the month of April. 36 innings pitched and only SIX earned runs allowed. That’s a first-month ERA of only 1.50. But he’s come back down to earth during this current month of May. His four starts this month have resulted in more than TRIPLE the ERA that he had in April (4.69). After allowing only 2 home runs in his first six starts, Nova has now allowed THREE in his last two starts.
His counterpart has had a pretty rough season from the get-go. That would be ageless(?) Bartolo Colon. The OVER has hit at a 67% percentage in his nine starts this year. His ERA for the season is a pretty high 6.38. And in his last five starts (which have gone 4-1 O/U), his ERA os even WORSE at 8.25. Hey… at least his teammates have been providing him with plenty of offensive support. The BRAVES have averaged 6.6 runs per game in Colon’s last five starts.
Prior to the Wednesday meeting, this BRAVES / PIRATES series has gone 4-1 O/U in the last five… and 7-23 O/U in the last ten played IN Atlanta.
Sealing the Deal is the MAN IN BLUE. Thursday’s afternoon’s Home Plate Umpire will be TOM HALLION. Right now, Hallion is the 2nd BEST ‘Over’ umpire in ALL of Baseball (out of 79 guys). His 8-1 O/U overall record is right behind our favorite guy (Bill Welke). After starting with an UNDER in his first game of the season, Hellion now now gone Over the Total in EIGHT straight games in a row. A stretch in which at least 10 total runs have been scored in ALL eight games. Hellion has notoriously SMALL strike zone, as evidenced by his average of only 13.3 K’s per game (which is ranked #77 out of 79 guys). Meanwhile, his average of 7.3 walks per game just him in the top 15. So not a lot of ‘punch outs’ for this Man in Blue (which can KILL an offensive rally)… but a good amount of FREE PASSES (which is good for those multi-run innings that OVER bettors love). Also worth noting for HALLION: He’s gone a PERFECT 5-0 O/U in his last five Atlanta Braves games… and 5-1 O/U in his last six Pittsburgh Pirates games.
Pick Made: May 24 2017 2:20PM PST