Analysis:
6:00pm PT / 9:00pm ET
#723-724
Western Conference Finals / Round 3 - Game 3
Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio Spurs
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
Last night, we were fortunate to bring home the bacon in Game Two of the Eastern Conference Finals… as the UNDER cashed by 3 points. We’re going right back to ANOTHER ‘Under’ on Saturday, in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals. There are obvious comparisons that can be made between the Cavaliers and Warriors, with the #1 being the fact that BOTH are on big-time Playoff winning streaks. So that’ll be our first area of query. Like Cleveland last night, Golden State has rolled thru the post-season… having YET to actually lose a game.
1-12-1 O/U since 2010: All NBA Playoff ROAD reams off 9 or more SU WINS in a row (Warriors). With Cleveland’s UNDER cashing in last night’s game in the SAME situation, the updated record for this situation is now 1-13-1 O/U!
As we type this at 11:00am ET on Saturday, a whopping 90% of the early action in this game is on the OVER. Not us… Yes, sharp OU bettors are certainly aware that EACH of the first two games of this Golden State / San Antonio series have indeed gone OVER the Total (by -14.5 pts and +26.5 pts). So let’s query those results into our database, and see what comes up. Covering a pretty large sample size, it looks like it’s time to go the other way…
18-48-3 O/U since 1994 (72% Under): All NBA Playoff GAME THREES (Warriors @ Spurs) when the first 2 games of the series went OVER the Total and the OU line is > 182 points. For a ‘tightener’, we note that these hames have gone 4-17 O/U since 2009 (81% Under) in NON-division play.
We always do a database search for any particular OU patterns that might apply to this game SPECIFICALLY. In our database, this one is known as the ‘3.3’ game (ROUND 3 / GAME 3)…
The ‘3.3’ game of the NBA PLAYOFFS (Warriors @ Spurs) has gone 2-17 O/U since 1198 when the OU line is in the range of 183 to 219 points...
Just like Cleveland did in THEIR Game Two last night, the Warriors put up 130+ points in their most recent Playoff game (also a Game Two). That sets up the following for teams in their next post-season game:
0-7 O/U: All NBA Playoff teams who scored 135 or MORE points in their last Playoff game (Warriors) when the OU line is 181 > points.
Golden State was a DOUBLE-DIGIT favorite in each of the first two games of this series… and won BOTH games…
1-9 O/U since 1997: All NBA Playoff ROAD teams off back-to-back Playoff WINS in which they were a DD favorite (Warriors) when the OU line is in there range of 200 to 217 points.
When I ran a query for any OU patterns that might apply to this particular Day of the Week, the following came up:
0-7 O/U since 1997: All SATURDAY Playoff games in which the HOME team (Spurs) is an UNDERDOG of +3 > points… in NON-division play… and in ROUNDS 2, 3, or 4.
Let’s not forget that this SPURS / WARRIORS series has gone 1-7 O/U in the last eight meetings IN San Antonio when the OU line is > 203 points.
Pick Made: May 20 2017 8:00AM PST