Analysis:
8:30pm ET / 5:30pm PT
#501-502
Eastern Conference Finals / Round 3 - Game 2
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
The OU line for tonight’s Game Two of the Eastern Conference Finals opened at 219.5 points. As we type this at 12:30pm ET, the line has gone down a half to a full point (to 219 or 218.5)… despite the fact that Wednesday’s Game One went Over the Total. We will FADE the 60% to 65% of the squares that are on the OVER… and instead join the sharp money on the UNDER. What naturally seals the deal for us is multiple situations out of our database that all indicate that a lower-than-anticipated final score is in the cards on Friday night. If you’ll remember the outcome from Game One, that game BARELY went Over the Total (by just two points) despite that fact that Quarters 2, 3, and 4 were pretty much ALL in ‘Garbage Time’ mode. When a team is winning a Playoff game by 20 or more points throughout most of the entire 48 minutes, the pace of play tends to quicken considerably… as both teams start hoisting up shots without paying much attention to the 24-second possession clock. Tonight’s Game Two should be a little closer… with significantly more energy devote to defense. Despite Wednesday’s OVER, let;s not forget that this Cavaliers / Celtics SERIES has still gone 1-6 O/U in the last seven meetings played IN Boston… with an average OU margin of -12.8 points per game.
In this game SPECIFICALLY….
The ‘3.2’ game of the Playoffs (Round 3 / Game 2) has gone 5-16-1 O/U since 1996 in EASTERN CONFERENCE Play (Cavs @ Celtics). That includes 1-9 O/U (90% Under) when the OU line is 183 or more points.
In ALL Game Two’s….
1-8 O/U since 1995: All NBA Playoff GAME TWO’s (in ANY round) when the OU line is 218 or more points (Cavs @ Celtics).
Yes, we are ware that Game One went OVER the Total (barely) with that high OU line of 218.5 points…
1-11 O/U since 1991 / 0-6 O/U since 2001: All non-division PLAYOFF home teams (Celtics) with an OU line of < 233 points off a Playoff HOME ‘Over’ in which the OU line in that last game was 218 > points.
So Boston is the #1 Seed team in the Eastern Conference…
2-17 O/U since 1996 / 0-8 O/U since 2008: All #1 SEED Playoff teams (Boston) in GAMES 2 or 3 of a series… off a SU Playoff loss of > 4 points that ALSO went ‘Over the Total’.
Next up, we research both teams’ current streaks. First off, I ran a query for Cleveland’s current NINE-game winning streak so far this post-season…
1-12-1 O/U since 2010: All NBA PLAYOFF road teams off 9 or more SU WINS in a row (Cavaliers). These dreams have gone a perfect 0-8 O/U when the OU line is > 193 points.
Second, I ran a query for teams who WERE on a 3-or-more game Playoff ATS winning streak… and had that streak broken in their last game…
0-13 O/U since 2003: All Playoff underdogs of < 7 points off a Playoff ATS loss that went OVER the Total… after a previous 3-game Playoff ATS winning streak (Celtics) when the OU line is 188 > points.
Wrapping up our database querying is a look at ‘road chalk’ teams on this particular Day of the Week…
0-6 O/U last 2 years: All NBA Playoff FRIDAY road favorites of > 2 pts (Cavaliers) in GAMES 1-5 of a series.
Pick Made: May 19 2017 9:18AM PST