Analysis:
7:05pm ET / 4:05pm PT
#919-920
SEATTLE MARINERS w/ Bergman @ TORONTO BLUE JAYS w/ Biagini
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
Last night’s Game One of this Toronto / Seattle series barely squeaked OVER the Total (OU line was 8.5 / final score 7 to 2)… thanks to the ‘5-spot’ put up by the Blue Jays in the 5th inning. We see an even higher-scoring outcome in tonight’s Game Two. A look at the less-than-stellar pitching matchup ALONE makes this one worthy of a bet. Factor in the extremely STRONG ‘Over’ Umpire, and you have a play that’s worthy of a 2** rating on our gameday service.
Last five games:
The MARINERS are averaging 7.5 runs per game in their last five versus right-handed starting pitchers…
The BLUE JAYS are averaging 4.2 runs per game in their last five versus right-handed starting pitchers…
The MARINERS are on a 4-0 O/U run in their last four ROAD games… and are a very solid 8-2 O/U run in their last ten games overall.
The BLUE JAYS are 5-0 O/U on FRIDAYS…. and have gone 5-1 O/U after scoring 5 or more runs in their previous game…
The pitching matchup in tonight’s game is basically ‘off the charts’. What we mean is that BOTH teams have been forced to go either to the Minors or to a career RELIEVER in establishing tonight’s starting pitchers. For the Mariners, big-time injuries to Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, James Paxton, and Drew Smyly (all FOUR are in the DL) have forced them to insert Christian Bergman into the rotation. A guy that’s made 56 overall career appearances with only 15 of those being actual starts (mostly with Colorado back in 2014 and 2015). He will not go long tonight…
On the flip side, getting the call for the host Blue Jays is lifetime reliever Joe Biagani. We’ll be looking for a Friday ‘blow up’ for Biagani in his first ever home start. We love fading (or betting OVER) a pitcher that’s off a Quality Outing in his first EVER home start. And that’ll be the case tonight. With key Toronto injuries to JA Happ, Aaron Sanchez, and Mat Latos… Biagnai should never have been in this spot. Like his counterpart, he won’t go long in this game.
Sealing the deal is tonight’s MAN IN BLUE. That would be TED BARRETT. Already a strong OVER Umpire in the ‘Junior Circuit’ (AL). Barrett has gone 18-10-2 O/U in American League games over the last two seasons. But that’s nothing compared to his strong start for OVER bettors in the 2017 season. After seeing his first game of the year going UNDER, Barrett has now gone a perfect 5-0-1 O/U in his last six starts since the beginning of April. Total runs scored by both teams during that OVER streak has been a very consistent 10 runs… 9 runs… 12 runs… 12 runs… 11 runs… and 28 runs (which was his most RECENT game). He is one of only SEVEN Major League Baseball UMPIRES who is averaging MORE than 12 combined runs per game so far in 2017… and that’s out of 79 ‘Men in Blue' as well.
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Pick Made: May 12 2017 10:36AM PST