Analysis:
#523-524
8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT
Western Conference semifinals
Round 2 / Game 6
San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets
3*** Play on : UNDER the TOTAL
We got our play in at the line of 215 points. Here on gameday, the OU line has dropped a full point despite the fact that 55% or more of the early (square) action is on the OVER. Yes, we were on the OVER in Tuesday’s game. But it took an OVERTIME period to get there… not to mention a ton of points in the last 2 minutes of that OT period as well. With only ONE day of rest off that overtime affair, Totals bettors have top ask how much fatigue will play a part in tonight’s outcome. After all, the following players played a SEASON-HIGH of minutes just two nights go: Mills, Green, Gordon, and Ginobli. Not to mention the 40+ minutes stints from Beverley, Aldridge, Harden, and Ariza. Factor in a ‘less-than 100%’ Kawhi Leonard, and it’s not surprising that the sharps are driving this OU line in a downward direction. So it look like this one will be the first NBA Playoff game to go UNDER since Saturday (Overs has gone 6-0 since then).
The later we get into a Playoff round, the higher the percentage of UNDERS that hit.
The ‘2.6’ game of the NBA Playoffs (Round 2 / Game 6) has gone 7-17-1 O/U since the 2006 season (Spurs @ Rockets). That includes 2-10 O/U when the previous game (‘2.5’) went Over the Total (like in this series).
As mentioned above, the OU line for tonights game is currently hovering at 214 points…. Since the 201 season, ALL NBA Playoff GAME SIXES (in any round) have gone 1-8 O/U when the OU line is 209 or more points (Spurs @ Rockets).
This has been a pretty solid Day of the Week for UNDERS when the home team is pegged as a mid-to-high favorite (Houston is currently -6)…
1-9 O/U since 2010: All NBA Playoff THURSDAY home favorites of -6 > points (Rockets) when the OU line is 219 or less points.
Also on this Day of the Week:
1-8 O/U All NBA Playoff THURSDAY games with only ONE day of rest (Spurs @ Rockets) in Game Six or Game Seven.
The Spurs come into tonight’s game having lost the cash (as in ATS loss) in Games 4 and 5… after cashing (as in ATS win) in Games 2 and 3…
1-15-1 O/U last 5 years: All NBA Playoff road teams off BB Playoff ATS losses and BB Playoff ATS wins in their last four games (Spurs).
With each of the last two games of this series going OVER the Total, our database points out that:
NBA Playoff home favorites of -6 > points off BB Playoff ‘Overs’ (Houston) haver gone 2-10 O/U when the OU line falls in the range of > 191 points and < 217 points.
With Houston off a slim down-to-the-wire loss on Tuesday, we note that:
NBA Playoff home teams off a SU Playoff loss of 3 or less points in which they allowed 110 > points (Rockets) have gone 2-14 O/U when the OU line is 205 or more points.
Pick Made: May 11 2017 9:42AM PST