Analysis:
7:35pm ET / 4:35pm PT
#733-734
Detroit Pistons @ New York Knicks
2** Play on: NEW YORK KNICKS plus the points
The Detroit Pistons are slip sliding AWAY when it come to the Playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. And they are currently NOT a team that you want to be betting on… PARTICULARLY when they are tabbed as ‘chalk’. With their current 3-game losing streak (and 1-6 SU in last 7 games), the Pistons have fallen all the way down to #10 in the Eastern Conference. And tonight’s they are once again tasked with LAYING points on the road. That’s no a good role for the Motor City boys. They were a road favorite in EACH of their last three games (vs Brooklyn / Orlando / and Orlando). And they lost all three gander OUTRIGHT (by margins of -7.5 pts / -24 pts / and -30.5 pts!). Detroit’s absolute worst ATS role is when they are a Conference road favorite. In the last 2 years, the Pistons have gone 5-18-1 ATS as conference road ‘chalk’ of < 9 points. In the same time frame, they’ve gone a PERFECT 0-9 ATS as ‘short’ conference road favs of -5 < points (they are -2 to -2.5 tonight).
It’s obviously true that the host Knicks have had a rough 2016/2017 season. Heading into tonight’s game, their year-to-date record is 27-46. But give ‘em at least a little credit for being COMPETITIVE in their losses. In their recently-concluded 4 game road trip, they went 0-4 SU. But they DID cash 3 out of 4 in terms of ATS results. And they’re finally back home where they have enjoyed their best ATS results this year. Believe it or not, but the Knicks have actually covered 65% of their Conference HOME games this season. That includes 9-2 ATS when playing off a loss in their last game… and a PERFECT 6-0 ATS as home UNDERDOGS in those situation (like tonight). It also certainly helps our cause when we realize that the HOST in this Detroit / New York series has gone a PERFECT 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.
So New York is back home off a 4-game road trip (vs Clips / Jazz / Trailblazers / Spurs)… 9-1 ATS since January: All non-division home underdogs off 4 or more road games in a row (KNICKS).
This has been a good Day of the Week for teams that are catching points at home… 23-9 ATS this season: All MONDAY non-division home underdogs of > 1 points (KNICKS). These teams have gone 14-2 ATS when the OU line is < 210 points (tonight’s line is 207-207.5)… and a PERFECT 8-0 ATS versus any opponent off a SU loss (like the Pistons).
So we are aware that both teams are off multiple losing streaks. New York has lost five straight games while Detroit has lost three straight games… 8-0 ATS last 5 years: All non-division conference home underdogs off 5 or more SU Losses in a row (NEW YORK) versus any opponent off 3 or more SU Losses in a row (Detroit).
As mentioned above, Detroit is off two UGLY spread losses in a row. They failed to cover by -24 points versus the Chicago Bulls… and failed to cover by -30.5 points versus the Orlando Magic… 0-5 ATS last 3 years: All NBA teams off back-to-back ATS losses of -24 > points EACH (Detroit) when the OU line is 193 > points.
This will be the last game of Detroit’s current road trip… 0-6 ATS last 6 years: All conference favorites of -10 or less points in the LAST of a 4-game road trip (Pistons).
Next up for the reeling Pistons is a home game TOMORROW against the Miami Heat… 3-15 ATS this season: All non-division road teams who have home game the NEXT DAY (Pistons) versus any opponent off a SU loss (KNICKS). These teams have gone a PERFECT 0-7 ATS as favorites...
Pick Made: Mar 27 2017 9:45AM PST