Analysis:
3*** UNDER the TOTAL
Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics
#753-#754
7:35pm ET / 4:35pm PT
Get your play in ASAP. I made my bet at the ‘overnight’ opening line of 208.5 points. Since then, the line in this Celtics / Pacers game has gone DOWN by 1.5 to 2 full points (206.5 to 207 points as we type this at 12:30pm ET). That line move is actually pretty interesting, considering the EARLY action in this game is 90% to 95% on the OVER. So how can we interpret this? Early ’squares’: OVER… but Early ’sharps’: UNDER.
We’ll start with the long-term OU tendencies of this series… and then hit the recent results. it really doesn’t matter WHAT time frame we are are talking about. It’s basically been ‘ Go LOW’ or pass. The CELTICS and PACERS have gone 5-18 O/U in the last 23 meetings between each other since the 2005 season. And in the last EIGHT meetings REGARDLESS of what he OU line is, this series has gone 1-7 O/U. Average OU line in the series: 204.8… Average combined points in the series: 196.6… The average game has gone UNDER by -8.2 points per game.
In terms of OU results, Boston has actually played about THREE different ‘seasons’ already in this ONE 2016/2017 season. The CELTICS, with a full compliment of healthy players… started the season by going 2-11-1 O/U in their first 14 games. Then they lots couple of KEY defensive players to injury in the middle of December. Result? A record of 24-9 O/U in their next 33 games. And that included an ‘unglaublich’ (UNREAL for you folks who speak German) run of 16-2 O/U from late December to late January. Once all their injured players got back in heathy shape, Boston has been the league’s BEST ‘Under’ team since the month of February began. Since then, the CELTICS have clocked in with a 5-18-1 O/U record in their most recent 24 games. That includes 2-12-1 O/U in their last 15… AND a PERFECT 0-8-1 O/U against fellow Eastern Conference opponents. As favorites against WINNING (> .500) opponents (like tonight), they’ve gone a perfect 0-6 O/U since January.
On the flip side, the Indiana Pacers have also been a team that’s had a 180-degree TURNAROUND in regards to their OU results in the 2016/2017 season. The PACERS started the nearby going OVER in 80% of their early games (10-2 O/U). At the halfway point of the season, Indiana was a decent OVER team with a record of 25-14-1 O/U. But like Boston, the Pacers have turned up the screws on DEFENSE since the month of February rolled around. Since then, the PACERS have gone 9-23 O/U in the last 32 games… including 3-12 O/U in their last 15. Their BEST ‘Under’ results have been on the ROAD (3-13 O/U last 16 away games)… 2-9 O/U in their last 11 CONFERENCE games… 2-10 O/U when playing off a SU win… and 1-7 O/U when playing with ONE day of rest.
Indiana’s most recent game was a win against the Utah Jazz two nights ago. In that one, Indy was actually a short home UNDERDOG… and won OUTRIGHT by a score of 107 to 100. Yes, we’re aware that game went OVER thanks to the ‘short’ ou line of 193.5 points. But that’s actually OK. Since February, NBA teams off a SU non-conference home dog WIN that also went Over the Total (Pacers) have gone UNDER at a 90% Clip (1-9 O/U).
Boston is currently in the midst of a six game home stand. Tonight will be GAME TWO of that homestead. The first game (Monday vs the Washington Wizards) went UNDER the Total… 0-8 O/U so far THIS season: All teams in GAME TWO of a 4+ home stand (Celtics)… off a home conference UNDER in their last game when they were a favorite of < 8 points (Boston was -4 on Monday).
Pick Made: Mar 22 2017 9:40AM PST