Analysis:
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
Los Angeles Clippers vs Los Angeles Lakers
10:35pm ET / 7:35pm PT
#665-666
On paper, this call on the UNDER looks potentially dangerous… and we certainly acknowledge that. After all, these are two of the better ‘Over’ teams in the league (Lakers: #8 / 38-32 O/U - Clippers: #10 / 37-32-2 O/U). And yes, we just used the Sunday night Cavaliers / Lakers game as our 4* OVER of the Week. That game finished in an expected SHOOTOUT with a final score of 125 to 120. And finally, YES… the Clippers just went OVER in last night’s home game against the New York Knicks. A game that was so one-sided that the Clips rested most of their starters in the 4th quarter. All we can tell you is that sharp pointspread and OU bettors know when to ‘ZAG’ while others are ‘zigging’. And this is one of these games. At the very least, we can confidently say to you that we have the hard-researched ‘OU ammo’ to back up our call.
These two teams played each other last on January 14th. In that game, the OU Line (219) was similar to tonight’s like (approx. 219/5 to 220 as we type this at 12:00noon ET). The final score in that game was Clippers 113 - Lakers 97. The UNDER cashed by 9 points. With that result, we CANNOT ignore that this has been a historically LOW-scoring series in the last three years. The last nine ‘LA vs LA’ meetings have gone 1-8 O/U. Thats only ONE ‘Over’ and EIGHT ‘Unders’. Average OU line: 209.1… Average combined points: only 194.1. The average game has gone UNDER by -15.0 points per game…
This has been a pretty low-scoring Day of the Week for big home underdogs like the Lakers. Since December, home underdogs of > 5 points (Lakers are currently +9) have gone 1-7 O/U.
In this particular division, UNDERS have come on pretty strong as of late as long as the OU line is in a reasonable range… Since January 1st, All PACIFIC DIVISION games (Clips vs Lakers) have gone 1-7 O/U when the OU line is 224 or less points.
I mentioned in our first paragraph that the Lakers just had a big-time home SHOOTOUT (125 to 120) in their last game (Sunday vs the Cavaliers)… 1-9 O/U since 2009: All underdogs of > 4 points off a SU non-conference home loss in which they scored AND allowed 120 or more points (Lakers).
We have discussed this division pointspread situation many times in the past. Not just in the sport of basketball… but the sport of football TOO. In division games in which the host is a BIG dog…. the UNDER comes in with great regularity… In the last 14 months, NBA games in which the HOME team is a big DIVISIONAL underdog of 8 > points (Like the Lakers), the results have been 5-18-1 O/U (78% Unders) when the OU line is 182 or more.
We have saved our best database query in regards to the game for LAST. It applies to each team’s current REST situation for tonight’s game. I discovered this EXTREMELY low-scoring pattern back in January and we have gone UNDER numerous times… with profitable results. In fact, finding this in-season situation is one of then reasons why our service is ranked in the Top Three in the Country in NBA plays with The Sports Monitor.
9-34 O/U so far THIS season and 3-26 O/U since mid December: All NBA same-DIVISION games in a ‘0/1’ REST situation (One team NO REST <Clips> / One team ONE day of rest <Lakers>).
We’ll let you know the NEXT time this LOW-scoring situation comes into play.
Pick Made: Mar 21 2017 9:05AM PST