Analysis:
Thursday, March 16th
#701-702
7:05pm ET / 4:05pm PT
UTAH JAZZ @ CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
We are releasing this play as soon as the lines for Thursday’s games come out. In this case, just after 3:00pm ET on Wednesday. Thats right, we’re already jumping on a Utah OVER before they even play their regularly-scheduled game on WEDNESDAY night against the Pistons in Motown. We got our play in at the opening line of 209.5. Will the OU Line in this one go UP or DOWN on gameday? Who knows? But we do know this. We did the same thing last week. Released a 2** Play on the SUNS / LAKERS 'Over the Total’ on a Wednesday night for a Thursday game. And we are super glad that we did. When we sent that one out last Wednesday, the OU line in that Pacific Division game was at 227 to 228 points. Our seasonal and monthly customers got their action in a full 24 hours ahead of time. And while WE all cashed our winners, SOME bettors did not. The final score in that Lakers / Suns game was 122 to 110. The TIP-OFF line in that game ballooned all the way up to 231.5 to 232.5 points. So some bettors missed out on a WIN. Another reason why smart Totals Players bet their OVERS as soon as they can, regardless of the sport. So despite the fact that we are essentially 'rolling the dice’ early in this Cavs / Jazz game (sending out a play before Utah has even played on WEDNESDAY), we encourage sharp OU bettors to join us…
I researched some aspects of this game when I was preparing our NBA page for this week’s Playbook basketball newsletter. So the play naturally jumped out at me as early as Monday, when I was digging for some pertinent OU individual TEAM trends. More on those a little further down in our writeup. As is almost always the case, I look for current rest situations that apply in our Over / Unders. And we have a great OVER situation that applies to this game. In fact, since Christmas… this situation has gone OVER in EVERY game. What we are looking for is NBA non-conference teams like the JAZZ who are playing with no rest in the 2nd of back-to-back road games. Here we go:
44-17-1 O/U so far this season (72% OVERS): All NBA non-conference road teams playing with NO REST off a non-conference road game the previous night (UTAH). That 72% OVER percentage is pretty damn solid for an entire 4.5 month season. But check out this ‘tightener’: When these teams are road underdogs of LESS than (<) 11 points (like the JAZZ) and the OU line is 223 < points, the results improve to a PERFECT 16-0 O/U!
*There will be other games over the next few days that apply in this same KILLER-‘Over’ situation. When we win this game, we will keep you posted when it comes up again…
The Cavaliers are off their most dominating division win of the season. They just beat up on the Detroit Pistons by 32 points on Tuesday night… 9-1 O/U last 6 years: All NBA home favorites of < 8 points off a SU division home WIN of 30 or more points (CAVALIERS).
The final score of that big division win on Tuesday was Cleveland 128 (HOT offense!) - Detroit 96… 21-7-1 O/U since late January of THIS season: All non-division teams who just scored 125 > points in their last game (CAVALIERS). These teams have gone 8-1 O/U when favored by -5 or more points (CAVS currently -6 on the opening line).
Utah comes into Thursday’s game with a middle-of-the-road Over-Under record of 35-32 O/U. Nothing spectacular in terms of OVER-heavy or UNDER-heavy results, right? WRONG. The NBA season is so long, that there can be a multitude of OVER and UNDER swings. Just ask the Boston Celtics and Minnesota Timberwolves. Sharp OU bettors like us went STRONG with the Utah UNDERS earlier in the season, and brought home multiple winners. The Jazz has a swing in December and January in which they went 3-15 O/U. Once the ‘square’ OU bettors found a seat on this UNDER bandwagon, the numbers started to go the the way. In fact, in the last 2 months… Utah has actually been one of the better OVER teams in the league. Especially on the ROAD where they have gone 10-2 O/U in this current 2-month period. Knowing when to ‘zag’ when other Total Bettors are ‘zigging’ is half the battle! These Jazz are also a perfect 5-0 O/U in NON-conference games when playing with NO REST… and this Cleveland / Utah series has gone 4-1 O/U in the last five meetings IN Cleveland.
The Cavaliers are on a great current OVER run of their own. Of course, knowledgeable OU bettors are already aware of this. In the same HOT 2-month time spans as the Jazz, Cleveland has gone 17-8-1 O/U in their last 26 games. That includes 8-2 O/U when he OU line was 217 or less points. Cleveland LOVES to run the ball up and down the court against UNRESTED opponents as well. The CAVS have gone 12-2 O/U in the last two years as home favorites of -16 < points against ‘NO REST’ opponents. That includes 9-1 O/U in the last 12 months…. AND a PERFCT 5-0 O/U so far THIS season already. The average combined points in these ‘No Rest’ games has been a whopping 236.8! Average margin: +18.2 points per game.
Pick Made: Mar 15 2017 12:30PM PST