Analysis:
2** UNDER the TOTAL
Los Angeles Lakers @ Phoenix Suns
#519-520
9:05pm ET / 6:05pm PT
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We’re going UNDER in not one, not two, but THREE games on Wednesday that’ll be played out west. The main reason is that all three of these games qualify in the exact same rest situation that has produced EXTREMELY low-scoring results all season long. Yes, some of these teams have put up some pretty solid OVER numbers on the year (Nuggets, Suns. T’Wolves)… but a couple of ‘em has also produced a surprising amount of UNDERS as well (Kings, Warriors). It looks like we’ll be playing on the ‘money MOVE’ in all three of them as well. The Minnesota / Denver game opened up with line of 230.5 on the overnights, and has already been bet DOWN to the current number of 226.5 to 226 points (as we type this at 12:00noon ET). The Lakers / Suns game opened at 226.5, and has been bet down a half-point to 226. And the Kings / Warriors game opened with as line of 227 last night, and has already been bet DOWN to the current number of 225.5 to 225. So get your action in as soon as possible.
When I started my database querying last night, the very first aspect that I looked at was the REST situation. I noticed that despite the fact that there were only three games last night, FIVE of the six teams that played are also playing again this evening. Their last game for the next 8 or 9 days (with the All-Star break coming up this weekend and extending into next week). We have four games tonight in which division opponents are facing each other… with one team on NO rest… and the other team on ONE day of rest. On a lark, I ran a query for this rest situation and was pretty much blown away with the results over the last year of play.
10-32-1 O/U last 13 months: All DIVISION home teams in a ‘1/0’ REST situation versus a fellow division opponent. A 10-32-1 O/U record is pretty solid. That’s 75% of all games that have gone UNDER the Total. But the numbers are even MORE one-sided as we get more recent. Since the 2016/2017 season started, these games have gone 4-18 O/U. That’s 82% UNDER the Total. And since the beginning of the month of December, these division games have gone a PERFECT 0-11 O/U! (100% Under).
There are THREE games that are active tonight in this ‘1/0’ division REST situation. And it makes sense that we should play equal amounts on ALL three games. We have a pretty good chance of hitting all three of these games. And we have an even BETTER chance of at least hitting TWO of these three games. That’s our goal tonight. To at least turn a profit with these three division battles. Those three games are: DENVER at home against MINNESOTA… PHOENIX at home against the LAKERS… and GOLDEN STATE at home against SACRAMENTO.
More database-querying that points to LOW-scoring results for these three games:
*1-10 O/U since 2009: All DIVISION home favorites of -16 or less points with a HIGH Over / Under line of 225 or more points (Nuggets + Suns).
*1-8 O/U since January: All NBA road teams playing with NO REST off a division game (Lakers + Kings).
*0-6 O/U last 30 days: All NBA road teams off a SU home FAVORITE loss (Lakers) that also went ‘Under the Total’.
*2-11 O/U since January: All NBA road teams off a SU road UNDERDOG win (Kings) that also went ‘Under the Total’.
*2-13 O/U last 12 months: All NBA road teams off a SU and ATS non-conference home loss (Timberwolves) that also went ‘Over the Total’.
MINNESOTA / DENVER: 0-4 O/U last 4 meetings… average of -16.0 points per game
SACRAMENTO / GOLDEN STATE: Already 0-2 O/U vs each other THIS season… despite one of those games also going in OVERTIME.
Pick Made: Feb 15 2017 8:46AM PST