Analysis:
#521-522
9:35pm ET - 6:35pm PT
Chicago Bulls @ Oklahoma City Thunder
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
The line for this non-conference game is back-and-forth ‘screwy' . It opened at 205.5 points on the overnight line. Here on gameday, it’s already gone UP by 2 to 3 points (207.5 to 208). Then, it started heading back down again (206 to 206.5 as we type this at 12:00 noon ET). So we don’t necessarily HAVE to get our wager in early. If you have access to monitoring multiple sports books, feel free to track the line throughout the day… and then make your move when it reaches it’s zenith. I played it at 207.5 points.
Based on each team’s current OU records for the season, this one is actually a no-brainer. After all, we are talking about the BEST and 2ND BEST ‘Under’ teams for the entire season squaring off in this game. That’s right. There CHICAGO BULLS are the #1 UNDER team in the entire league with a YTD record of 17-30-2 O/U. And they’e done most of the heavy lifting in terms of low-scoring results on the ROAD…. where they have gone 6-16-1 O/U. Right behind the Bulls as the #2 UNDER team in the league is the host OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER… who come in with a 18-29-2 O/U record on the season. So these two teams are a combined 35-59-4 O/U for the year. From an individual TEAM perspective, we’ve also got the ‘OU ammo’.
The THUNDER have gone 1-8 O/U as home favorites playing with NO REST when the OU line is > 197 points. That includes a perfect 0-5 O/U in the last two seasons. Also 0-4 O/U in their last 4 vs the Central Division… 1-4 O/U in their last 5 non-conference games… and 2-10 O’u as home favorites off a double-digit SU loss in their last game (lost to Spurs 108-94 last night).
The BULLS have gone 1-10 O/U on WEDNESDAYS against non-conference opponents… 1-6 O/U this season when playing with TWO days of rest… and 1-6 O/U in the last 12 months on the road versus UNRESTED opponents.
Our first database query looks at the fact that the host Thunder just played last night… In the last 12 months, NBA home favorites of < 9 points playing with NO REST off a double-digit road loss the previous night (Thunder) have gone 3-17 O/U. That includes 1-14 O/U when the OU line is < 213 points…
The host Thunder come into tonight’s game off a couple of ugly road losses to San Antonio (108 to 94) and Cleveland (107-91). We also note that both of those games went UNDER as well (by -8.5 points and -19.5 points respectively)… 0-8 O/U so far THIS season: All Western Conference home favorites off back-to-back SU and ATS road losses (Thunder).
On the flip side, the Bulls last played on Sunday at home against the Philadelphia 76ers. We were on the OVER in that one and cashed it fairly easily by +23.5 points. We’re switching gears with this team tonight as they head to the road. And besides, NBA teams have gone 3-12 O/U so far this season (0–7 O/U since December) as road underdogs with 2 days REST off a double-digit home WIN (Bulls).
Prior to that high-scoring Sunday win, the Bulls scored only 88 points in the game before that against the Miami Heat… 1-9-1 O/U so far this season: All NBA teams who scored 120 > points and < 90 points in their last two games (Bulls).
Pick Made: Feb 1 2017 8:49AM PST