Analysis:
#505-506
7:35pm ET / 4:35pm PT
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Brooklyn Nets
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
The strong initial OU line move for this game tonight is on the UNDER… and our Totals Team agrees. This Cleveland / Brooklyn game opened at 222.5 points on the the overnight line. Here on gameday, it’s already gone down by a full point or TWO. As we type this right around noon (ET), the OU line is showing up right around 221 to 220.5. From a ‘game flow’ or ‘game script’ perspective, the UNDER makes perfect sense. We have a 26-8 road team…. favored by MORE than double-digits…. taking on a 8-26 home team. GAME FLOW says that the big fav gets out to a big lead by halftime… and then rests their starters in the 2nd half. The Cleveland Cavaliers would love nothing more than that. They’re not ‘playing with a FULL deck’ anyway. Kyrie Irving has been out for three straight games and might not play tonight. even if he does, he will NOT be at 100%. Kevin Love was held out of Wednesday’s game against Chicago (food poisoning). If he plays tonight, it will also not be at 100%. And LeBron James is still nursing an ankle injury. So he will also not be at 100%. If this was a NATIONALLY televised Thursday or Sunday game against a great Western Conference opponent (like a Golden State or a Houston), we might consider the OVER. But in a ‘who gives a s**t’ Friday Night game against a .235 team, all the Cavs care about is a road win by ANY margin… and getting out with no more additional injuries.
Headlining this play is the recent OU tendencies of this series. EACH of the last six meetings between the CAVALIERS and NETS have gone UNDER the Total. That’s 0-6 O/U since the start of last season. Average OU line: 208.5… Average combined score: 193.7. The average game has gone UNDER by almost 15 POINTS (-14.8!).
It doesn’t matter whether the sports is FOOTBALL or BASKETBALL. But show me a game in which the road team is ‘Big CHALK’… and we’re always going ti look to Go LOW first.
Since March of last season, BIG NBA road favorites of -9 > points (Cavs are -13.5 tonight) have gone 9-24 O/U. Since December 1st of THIS season, these teams have gone PERFECT 0-6 O/U. And for the record, REAL BIG road favorites of -12 < points have gone an almost PERFECT 1-10 O/U in this same time frame.
How about running a query for that relatively HIGH Over / Under line? ...2-10 O/U since November: All home underdogs of > 1 points (Nets) when the OU line is 220 or more points.
Cleveland has a 26-8 record (.765) on the year while Brooklyn is 8-26 (.235)… 1-10 O/U last 12 months: All .750 > road teams (Cavaliers) versus a .300 < home team (Nets) when the OU line is 210 > points.
The Cavs just lost as DIVISION home favorites to the Bulls two nights ago… 2-10 O/U this season: All favorites of -16 < points (Cavaliers) off a division FAVORITE loss, when the OU Line is 227 < points.
The Nets just lost LAST NIGHT to the Indiana Pacers by a score of 121 to 109… 2-9 O/U last 2 years: All home teams with NO REST (Nets) off a SUATS road loss in which they allowed 120 or more points.
CAVS: 2-6 O/U on Fridays… 0-6 O/U last six versus LOSING (< .500) opponents… 1-5 O/U playing with ONE day of rest…
NETS: 0-4-1 O/U after scoring 100+ points in their last game… 1-4 O/U versus the Central Division… 1-5 O/U at home vs opponents with a > .500 road record… 2-6-1 O/U off a SU loss.
Pick Made: Jan 6 2017 9:08AM PST