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54 WAS / 53 TOR Under 5.5 Pinnacle
double-dime bet
Analysis:
I'm playing on WASHINGTON and Toronto to finish UNDER the total 2* SPECIAL. The Caps almost always see O/U lines of five here but we're getting a 5.5 to work with tonight. That's based largely on the idea that the Leafs are a poor or medicre defensive team. While that may have been true last game (when they gave up 4) or earlier in the season, note that th Leafs have currently allowed three or fewer goals in 15 of their last 16 games. Games here at Washington are averaging only 4.4 goals on the season, visiting teams managing a mere 1.8 goals per game here, to go along with a paltry 25.4 shots on goal. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is a healthy 11-6-2. With the Leafs last three visits here all staying below the total and with the UNDER also at 11-6 (46-26 Under L2+ yrs!) when the Leafs played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5, I feel that the extra juice for the extra half goal is justified.
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