Analysis:I could be way off on this, but obviously I don't think so. I'm putting it out as my best play this morning, if for no other reason that to create an avenue to get you guys information that you pay for. That's in the event I don't add anything, although the NBA card is big enough that we may find some value there. In this game, I don't think the pace will be awesome, and rather than looking at how these teams score, I looked at how the defend, which is HORRID. In their last game against UMass Lowell, Marist let a bad and smaller team shoot 55% from the floor and actually out-rebound them. On the upside, Marist hasn't been turning the ball over, so as we say, more meaningful possessions. They're a bad offensive rebounding team, and Niagra will run off misses. Marist HAS been getting to the FT line and is shooting almost 75% from it - so those are all good things. Niagra gave up 80 to North Texas and scored 93 against Drexel. Niagra can shoot the three and also gets to the line a fair amount, and THEY have protected the ball well - and equally important haven't been turning people over on defense. So, there are lots of ways, including late free throws, for this to get there. Barring a brick-throwing contest, which is always possible in MAAC games - we should get this. And of course it IS the first Conference game, so there won't (shouldn't) be any lack of effort by either team. These Friday/Sunday MAAC games can present great opportunities going forward, as the rematches and quick look-aheads tend to carry more weight for me. Might get a better # later - hard to think it goes UP.
In another game I have an early opinion on, I do think St. Peters plays Iona tougher than people might expect. They did last year (twice) and St. Peters is a better team this year. Iona just spent a week or so in Alaska winning that Tournament, so maybe a sluggish start. They've got a man down - Deysonee Much - who was a .447 three point shooter last season, or at least he's "doubtful" this AM, which also might lead us to an under. We'll see, but at +3 I am close to adding the Peacocks. One thing they HAVE done well this year is defend the perimeter, and most monkeys that live on Mars know how Iona likes to play. OK, so there are no monkeys on Mars and they probably don't have satellite TV anyhow - but most Iona games are lined for Joe Q to just bet them and the over blindly, not unlike take "under" in an Alabama football game. The Tide are actually 8-2 to the "over" in the last ten Bowl Games, FWIW.
Pick Made: Dec 2 2016 5:19AM PST