Analysis:
Sunday, Nov. 27th
4:25pm ET / 1:25pm PT
#273-274
New England Patriots @ New York Jets
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
A big division game… neither team playing ‘with a full deck’ on offense… A Top Ten statistical defense in the Jets… a Top Three SCORING defense in the Patriots… It all adds up to a LOWER-than-anticpated score in the late afternoon kickoffs. So let’s look at the current line move. This AFC East Division game opened with a high OU lime of 48 points. At last look, a full 69% to 70% of the square money is actually on the OVER. Yet DESPITE that, the OU line has dropped a full 2.5 to 3 points. As we type this on Saturday afternoon, the line is down to 45 to 45.5 points. So what does that tell us? Squares are on the OVER…. SHARPS are on the UNDER. So are we…
This is a solid week of the season as of late for Division UNDERS…
2-10 O/U last three years. All GAME 11 division games (Pats @ Jets) when the OU line is in the range of 52 to 52 points.
Its been a long grueling week for the traveling Patriots. They played out in the Bay Area last Sunday, and had to travel back across the country to the East Coast for this week’s game.
1-9 O/U since 2008: All EAST DIVISION (AFC or NFC) team on the road (Patriots) off a West Time Zone road game… when the OU line is > 43 points.
At last look, New England was tabbed as a h-u-g-e road favorite of -7.5 to -9 points in this game. I wrote about the STRONG ‘Under’ tendencies for these types of NFL games in each of the last two issues of the Playbook Totals Tipsheet. There were two such games last week (big road FAVS of a TD or more). BOTH of those games went UNDER (Steelers @ Browns / Patriots @ Niners).
There are two more games going this Sunday as well.
NFL big road FAVORITES of -7 > pts with an OU line of 52 < points have gone 14-43-1 O/U (75% Under) in the history of our database. In the last 12 months, these games have gone a PERFECT 0-15 O/U! So guess which we way are going? U-N-D-E-R…
In last week’s West Coaster, the Patriots were a double-digit favorite against San Fran and the game stayed UNDER the Total… 1-8 O/U last 2 years: All NFL teams off a SU and ATS win in which they were a DOUBLE-DIGIT favorite (Patriots) and that game also went ‘Under the Total’… when the OU line is 52 < points.
New England comes with a great record of 8-2 SU (.800)… while the host Jets are in last place in the AFC East Division with a 3-7 SU record (.300)…
1-9 O/U since 2012: All GAME 10 or greater .800 > ROAD teams (Patriots) versus a < .333 opponent (Jets).
Last week, there Jets could only manage SIX points in their home game versus the Rams…
0-5 O/U last three years: All NFL home teams who scored > 7 points at HOME in their last game (Jets) when the OU line is > 41 points.
In that game, the underrated New York DEFENSE held Los Angeles to only NINE points… and neither team had more than 300 yards of offense…
1-8 O/U last 12 months: All NFL home teams who ALLOWED < 10 points at HOME in their last game (Jets).
Pick Made: Nov 26 2016 9:11AM PST