Analysis:
12:00pm ET / 9:00am PT
#133-134
ACC Conference
North Carolina State Wolfpack @ North Carolina Tarheels
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
We’re fading the line more in this one… and STRONGLY going against ‘Joe Pubic’. So let’s wait for this line to top out before we make our move on the Under. This ACC game from the Tarheel State on Rivalry Weekend opened with an OU line of 56.5 points. Since then, the line has gone up to the current number of 59.5 (as we type this on Wednesday night). At last look,a full 95% to 97% of the early square action is on the Over. Not us. Our database forecasts that this game won’t go any higher than the low 50’s.
It’s been a rough season for the traveling Wolfpack of NC State. After beating Notre Dame on October 8th (the ‘hurricane; game) to improve to 4-1, NC State has lost five of their last six games and now needs a win over their in-state rival to become bowl eligible. As a result, there are questions on whether Wolfpack head coach Dave Doeren will return in 2017. So the key for NC State will be playing to their offensive strength: keeping the ball on the GROUND… grinding out the clock… and limiting the time that Tar Heels will be in the field. That means a LOT of carries and a heavy load for the Wolfpack senior running back from Weston, Florida (our back yard). That would be Matt Dayes.. who has amassed 1015 of the Wolfpack’s 1630 rushing yards this season.
On the flip side, the Tarheels do NOT control their own destiny when it comes to the ACC Coastal Division. That outcome will be determined by Saturday’s action. While it’s true that North Carolina QB Mitch Trubinsky could have a big day throwing the ball, the NC State team will try to slow this one down as mocha a they can. Plus, I can;t get it out of my head that North Carolina was actually outstatted by CITADEL (of all teams) in last week’s non-lined game. Let’s also not forget that the Tarheels come into this Friday game on a 1-6 O/U run in their last seven games… wit an average of MORE than double digits (-10.7 ppg). And the visiting Wolfpack are ALSO 1-6 O/U in THEIR last seven games to boot. With an equally UNDER-whelming margin of -14.1 points per game!
Based in the pointspread and OU line, the anticipated final score in this one is North Carolina 35 - North Carolina State 24.
Our database models and simulations project a much lower final score:
NORTH CAROLINA TARHEELS 31 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK 21
That’s about 6-7 points lower than the current OU line… which triggers a 2** Play for our service.
Pick Made: Nov 23 2016 3:05PM PST