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311 Oregon 0.0 (-110) 5Dimes vs 312 California
dime bet
Analysis:Anyhow, better late than never on the reasoning, and if Cal wins by two I'll snap. Cal is a .500 team that's a favorite over a very pissed off and "nothing to lose" (which is a dangerous team to play) Oregon team. Cal's wins - somewhat impressive at home over Utah (who isn't the same on the road), over Texas who we now know to be a fraud, and they allowed the Longhorns 43 points (who does that), and of course over Hawaii (who scored 31). This is also a team that lost to Oregon State, allowed 45 points to San Diego State (loss), and lost to Arizona State (who does that). So yes, I can see the love for them, but not mine. The Ducks aren't great - I get that, but how angry might you be if you're Oregon and allowed SEVENTY points last week? They lost at Washington State who is MUCH improved - but prior to that they almost beat an excellent Colorado team, only lost by three to a "decent" Nebraska team, and put up 44 points on a decent Virginia defense. The BIGGEST edge the Ducks will have here is DEPTH. They'll allow some points and this game could well hit 100 - but Oregon is a far "safer" bet here with a much bigger upside. The Ducks strength of schedule is 20th in the nation, Cal's is 50th. There's a big difference there. In Conference SOS it's Oregon #1 and Cal #12. Cal may be getting the headlines, and Oregon has been left for dead - but that's why we're able to get this line where it is. Golden Nugget released this game at Ducks -7 back in the Summer - the difference (aside from the records) isn't much different now than it was then. Now we can add the fact that 63% of 30,000+ tickets are on Cal yet the line has flipped. In many cases you'd expect that as wiseguys try to get plus money on both sides - but in a semi stand-alone game like this, I don't see that as the case.Pick Made: Oct 21 2016 10:29AM PST
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