Analysis:
Monday, Oct 17th
8:30pm ET / 5:30pm PT
New York Jets @ Arizona Cardinals
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
This Monday night non-conference game opened with an OU line of 47 points. The first initial ‘push’ was downward. As off Sunday night, the line was in the range of 45.5 to 46 points. We’ll join that line move and go UNDER just like we did last Monday night in the Panthers / Buccaneers game. Both of these teams have pretty solid UNDER numbers in these primetime affairs on the first day of the week. The JETS have gone 2-6 O/U on MONDAYS in the last six seasons. That includes a perfect 0-3 O/U in the last two seasons. The CARDINALS have gone a PERFECT 0-5 O/U in their last five MONDAY games since the 2009 season. Average OU margin in those games: -9.3 points per game…
OU situations that apply to this particular Day of the Week:
MONDAY teams playing off a THURSDAY game (like the Cards) have gone 4-14 O/U in the last five years… including a PERFECT 0-5 O/U at home. The average OU margin for this teams is -14.0 ppg…
MONDAY home teams who play at home against a fellow DIVISION opponent the next week (Cards) have gone 5-24 O/U 1991.. including 1-14 O/U in the last ten years (Arizona hosts Seattle next week).
MONDAY home favorites of > 2 its who are .400 or less on the season (Arz) have gone 1-7 O/U versus opponents who also are .400 or less on the season (Nyj).
At last look, Arizona was favored by -7.5 points in this game, with an OU line of 45.5 to 46 points… 1-6 O/U Last 2 years: All NFC home favorites of -7 > its (Cards) versus an AFC opponent (Jets) when the OU line is > 43 points.
Arizona played the 49ers last Thursday. They won the game as a road favorite (33-21), and the game went Over the Total… 0-8 O/U Last 3 years: All home favorites off a SU divisional road favorite SU AN D ATS win that also went Over the Total (Arizona)…
Prior to last week’s division fav win, the Cards lost 2 straight games as a favorite (vs the Rams and the Bills)… 0-6 O/U last years: All teams off a SUATS fav win… and back-to-back SU favorite LOSSES in their last three games (Arizona) when the OU line is < 48 points.
The Jets have lost each of their last two games by double digits (vs Pittsburgh and Seattle)… Already THIS season, NFL teams off BB double-digit losses (Jets) have gone 1-5 O/U.
So the tailspin for the Jets is now three SU and ATS losses in a row… 1-7 O/U last 2 years: All non-division teams off 3 or more SU and ATS losses in a row (Jets).
1-11 O/U since 2003 / 0-8 O/U since 2007: All GAME SIXES when BOTH teams are UNDER .500 for the season in W/L percentage (Jets @ Cards)… the home team is a favorite (Arz)… and it’s a NON-division game. This also applied to yesterday’s Jaguars @ Bears game and that one went UNDER… so we’ll play it again on Monday.
Pick Made: Oct 16 2016 3:59PM PST