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952 TOR (-185) Pinnacle vs 951 CLE
dime bet
Analysis:
I'm playing on TORONTO. Obviously, the Jays are in a "must win" spot. While that certainly doesn't always guarantee victory, in this case, I expect Toronto to have a significant advantage. Stroman is a bigtime competitor and he's in better current form than Bauer. Stroman checks in with a 2.70 ERA (0.95 WHIP) his last three starts. On the other hand, Bauer has a poor 4.91 ERA his last three starts. While Bauer has an ugly 8.57 ERA (1.757 WHIP) in three starts vs. the Jays, Stroman has a superb 1.29 ERA in two starts vs. the Tribe. The Indians hit great at home but average only 4.1 runs, while hitting .236, when playing on the road. Meanwhile, the Jays average 5.0 runs per game at home, on the strength of a .260 batting average. While the price is admittedly steep, note that the Jays are a solid 23-10 (+3.9) the past 2+ seasons, as home favorites in the -175 to -200 range. Don't count them out quite yet.
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