Analysis:
49ers @ Bills OVER THE TOTAL
We’re gunning for yet another OVER winner and that means a lot of points in this ‘West to East’ non-conference matchup. Normally, one doesn’t think OVER the TOTAL when it comes to the Buffalo Bills or San Francisco 49ers. But we’ve got the OU ammo to back it up. It starts with the extra rest for the visiting 49ers, off a Thursday game vs the Cardinals.
NFL teams off a THURSDAY home game that went OVER the Total (49ERS) have gone 36-8 O/U since 2009. That includes an impressive 20-2 O/U for ROAD teams when the OU line is > 43 points.
That last game for the Niners had a final score of 33 to 21 (OVER hit by Double Digits)... 6-0 O/U since 2008: All GAME SEVEN or less road underdogs of a SU division HOME loss that also went ‘Over the Total’ (49ERS).
For the host Bills, it looks like HC Rex Ryan is off the hot seat... thanks to 3 straight wins (including two as a DOG)... 6-0 O/U since 2002: All NFL home favs of 3 > pts off a SU road FAV win... and back-to-back DOG wins in their last three gms (BUF).
This is one of those West TIME ZONE teams playing on the road against a East TIME ZONE opponent in an early Sunday kickoff... 9-0 O/U last 5 years: Any EAST DIVISION favorite of > 1 pt off a SUATS road win (BUF) vs any WEST DIVISION opponent (SF) when the OU line is in the range of 39 to 51 points.
In these ‘West to East’ Sunday early games, we note that SAN FRANCISCO has gone a PERFECT 5-0 O/U L5Y as road dogs of > 3 points. Meanwhile, the Bills have been a great OVER team in this situation. BUFFALO has gone 19-5 O/U as a host in these ‘West to East’ games since 1986... including 9-1 O/U when favored by > 4 points.
We’re fully aware that San Francisco HOME games have been strong UNDER plays in the last year and a half. But they went 6-2 O/U AWAY last year (49.4 ppg), and are already 2-0 O/U away THIS season (64.0 ppg). The clincher is the ‘RUSHING SUCCESS’ blurb mentioned on page three. This game has the best shot at an OVER result in that 20-5-2 O/U rushing situation that’s already cashed BIG this season...
Pick Made: Oct 14 2016 11:47AM PST