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954 PIT (-106) 5Dimes vs 953 CHC
double-dime bet
Analysis:Chicago will conclude their 4-game series in Pittsburgh against the Pirates on Thursday night. The Cubs have already clinched the best record in the league and they are expected to rest some starters tonight, including their two best players, 1B Anthony Rizzo (.292, 32 HR, 106 RBI) and 3B Kris Bryant (.293, 39 HR, 101 RBI). Chicago will also go with a first-time starter in Rob Zastryzny this evening. My numbers project a poor outing for Zastryzny against Pittsburgh’s lineup. The southpaw projects to give up 2.6 earned runs with a weak 4.16 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in this game. Zastryzny also projects to have a lowly 1.7 strikeout/walk ratio against the Pirates. Pittsburgh has hit Zastryzny hard in the past; the Pirates have hit .667 with an incredible 1.417 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against the Chicago pitcher. Zastryzny has made seven relief appearances for the Cubs this season, however this will be his first start. He did not pitch well in the minors with a 4.31 ERA in 24 games this season (23 starts) and overall he has a weak 4.60 career ERA during his 73 minor league appearances (68 starts). The Pirates have been strong against left-handed starters this season, going 20-9 while averaging 5.7 runs with a .278 batting average, compared to just 58-71 in all other games.Pittsburgh will start Ivan Nova who projects to have a fantastic outing against Chicago’s lineup based on my numbers. Nova is slated to give up just 2.2 earned runs with a solid 3.37 ERA and an excellent 1.17 WHIP in this game. The right-hander also projects to have a 7.5 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a terrific 3.2 strikeout/walk ratio against the Cubs. The Pirates are 7-3 in Nova's ten starts since acquiring him from the Yankees two months ago. Nova has pitched well against Chicago’s lineup in the past. The Cubs have hit just .217 (10-for-46) with an awful .539 OPS against the right-hander during his career. Chicago has nothing to play for in this game and they will begin resting starters and key players as they focus on the playoffs which begin next week. We’ll back Pittsburgh with Nova on the mound in this game on Thursday night.
2* Play PIRATES (-).
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