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980 TEX -1.5 (+115) Pinnacle vs 979 MIL
double-dime bet
Analysis:Milwaukee beat Texas 8-3 last night, but we expect a much different outcome on Tuesday night. The Brewers will send Jimmy Nelson to the mound who has a terrible 5.72 ERA and 1.68 WHIP at home this season. My numbers project another poor outing for Nelson against the Rangers' lineup. The right-hander projects to give up 3.1 earned runs with a weak 4.92 ERA and a poor 1.49 WHIP in this game. Nelson also projects to have a weak 6.9 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 2.0 strikeout/walk ratio in this game. Texas is 50-26 at home this year where they are averaging 5.3 runs per game while bating .282 as a team.The Rangers will start A.J. Griffin who projects to have a fantastic outing against Milwaukee’s lineup based on my numbers. Griffin is slated to give up just 2.2 earned runs with a solid 3.63 ERA and an excellent 1.18 WHIP in this game. The right-hander also projects to have a strong 10.3 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a terrific 3.7 strikeout/walk ratio against the Brewers tonight. Milwaukee’s lineup has hit just .172 (5-for-29) with an awful .407 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Griffin during his career. The Brewers have been a much weaker offensive team versus right-handed pitchers this season, averaging just 3.9 runs per nine innings with a .236 batting average, compared to 5.0 runs and .247 versus LHP. Texas holds all of the edges in this game, so we’ll back the Rangers on the run line tonight.
2* Play RANGERS (-1.5 runline).
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