Analysis:
Thursday, Sept. 8th
8:30pm ET / 5:30pm PT / #451-452
Carolina Panthers @ Denver Broncos
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
The OU Line for this opening night Super Bowl rematch started at 43 points. It has since gone down to it’s current number of 41.5 to 42 points. That’s no surprise, given the fact that we have two of the league’s BEST defenses squaring off against each other. Last year, Denver was #2 overall in defense, allowing only 293.5 yards per game. And they were #4 in SCORING defense, allowing only 17.9 points per game. For the visiting Panthers, they were #4 in overall defense, allowing 318.5 yards per game… and #6 in SCORING defense, allowing 19.5 points per game. Think Denver is gonna play this one as close to the vest as possible when it comes to offense? With a guy making his FIRST career start at Quarterback, that would probably be a prudent assumption. This Broncos / Panthers series has gone 1-4 O/U in the total five meetings (including last year’s Super Bowl). Average OU line: 43.2 points… Average combined points: 39.0.
This is a PRIMETIME game on a THURSDAY. At one point, non-division games on Thursdays had a very high OVER percentage. But OU patterns and tendencies in the NFL change. Last season, Thursday games ended up going 7-11 O/U. In fact, when a AFC team is hosting a NFC team on this day of the week, the UNDER has been perfect: 0-7 O/U since 2001: All NFL games on a THURSDAY when an AFC team (Denver) is hosting a NFC team (Carolina). These games have averaged only 32.1 combined points per game.
Let’s eliminate the Day of the Week from this query. In the last few years, non-conference games have been sharp UNDER plays when a road team from a particular conference is favored… 1-9 O/U last three years: All NFC Conference road favorites of > 1 point (Panthers) versus an AFC Conference opponent (Broncos)… when the OU line is < 47 points.
As I mentioned in this week’s Over / Under newsletter (Playbook TOTALS TIPSHEET), this is one of a handful of Week One games in which the road team is favored… and it’s a non-division game.
NFL Week One NON-DIVISION road favorites (Panthers) have gone 6-27-1 O/U since 1998 when the OU line is 41 or more points.
Running a query in our database based on the short pointspread AND the relatively small OU line also points us in the right direction: 2-11 O/U last two years: All NFL non-division road favorites of LESS than (<) 4 points (Panthers) when the OU line is < 43 points.
Let’s not forget that Super Bowl REVENGE motivation for the visiting Panthers… 1-8 O/U last three years: All GAME ONE road teams playing with REVENGE (Carolina) when the OU line falls in there range of > 39 points and < 47 points.
Yes, Carolina was one of our favorite OVER teams last season. We used them multiple times… including our 10* NFL Game of the Year when they played the NY Giants (final score 38-35). And there will be times when we go OVER with the Panthers this year. But not in Week One. CAROLINA has gone a perfect 0-4 O/U the last four years in their first game of the season. Average OU line: 42.5… Average combined points: only 27.0!
Pick Made: Sep 6 2016 8:17AM PST