Analysis:
Friday / August 19th
9:00pm ET / 6:00pm PT / #417
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
2** Play on: ARIZONA CARDINALS plus the points
Grab ANY amount of points that you can in this game (to play it safe). Not that you will need them. This one has all the making of a BIG road win for one of the BEST teams in the NFL conference, off last week’s misleading (statistic-wise) loss in Game One by a score of 31-10. We watched that entire game against the Raiders last week, as our service had a 2* Play on OVER the Total. We were fortunate to win that one. But what we actually learned was that the game was MUCH closer than the final score indicated. In fact, one can make a case that the Cards should have actually come away as the ‘Victors’. After all, it was ARIZONA that had more total yards in the game… and also had a very convincing FIRST-DOWN advantage of 22 to 10. On the flip side, San Diego also had what looked to be an ugly loss as well in their first pre-season game. But the score was NOT misleading in that one. The Chargers were manhandled in the final score (lost to Tennessee 27-10)… were ‘out-yarded’ by over 100 yards (437 to 330)… and had only 10 first downs to 27 for the Titans.
So now we head into the database to review last week’s results, and see what looks hot for this week. Our first query looks at Arizona’s shocking home favorite loss of 21 points…
39-18 ATS (68%) since 1999 / 19-5 ATS (79%) since 2008: All PRE-SEASON underdogs off a SU pre-season home favorites loss of 10 or more points (CARDINALS). In Games 2 or 3, these pissed-off teams have gone an almost perfect 15-2 ATS (88%).
Next up, we review San Diego’s road loss on which they were dominated by the Titans…
1-10 ATS since 2003: All PRE-SEASON favorites off a SU pre-season road loss of 17 > points versus a < .500 opponent (CARDS).
When we combine the two aspects together (San Diego off a road loss / Arizona off a home loss), the results from our database JUMP right off the page in our face. In the last three seasons, this has been an IDEAL time to ‘fade’ the home team…
1-16-1 ATS last three years / 0-12-1 ATS last two years: All PRE-SEASON home teams (fav OR dog) off a SU road loss (Chargers) versus any opponent off a SU home loss (CARDINALS).
To wrap everything up, I also ran a query for these ‘West Division VERSUS West Division’ pre-season games that are played with great regularity in the pre-season. And we ALWAYS want to look at the ‘travelers’ FIRST…4-22-1 ATS since 2008: All AFC WEST Division pre-season home favorites (San Diego) versus a NFC WEST Division opponent (ARIZONA). These games have gone a PERFECT 0-10-1 ATS for the host if the opponent is off a loss in their last game (like the CARDS).
In the BRUCE ARIANS era (2013 / 2014 / 2015), the CARDINALS have gone a PERFECT 6-0-1 ATS on the pre-season ROAD… and a PERFECT 6-0-1 ATS as pre-season UNDERDOGS.
Pick Made: Aug 19 2016 9:06AM PST