Analysis:
#962 / 9:40pm ET - 6:40pm PT
New York Mets with Syndergaard @ Arizona Diamondbacks with Shipley
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
We got our play in at the line of 8.5 runs in this one. Since that opening line on the overnights, it’s gone down a half run to the current number of 8 runs. So get your play in as soon as possible. That’s been a curious line move. At last look, 70% to 75% of the action in this game has actually come in on the OVER… but the line has actually gone down. So what can we assume by that action? The squares are playing the OVER, and therefore assuming a repeat of what happened last night (a high-scoring 10-6 D’Backs win).… while the SHARP money is actually coming in on the UNDER… and driving the line down. If you can find a line of 8.5 in this game, GRAB it...
As is usually the case with our Totals, the impact of the ‘Man in Blue’ comes into play. And that will be the case tonight. In yesterday’s game, the crew chief who worked behind the dish was James Hoye. It’s no surprise that last night’s Game One went OVER… considering that Hoye’s overall record on the year is 9-5-1 O/U (64% Overs). But things are different for tonight’s Game Two. That’s because today’s Man in Blue will be MARVIN HUDSON. He comes into tonight’s game on current streaks of 0-4 O/U in his last four games (with an average of only 5.3 combined runs per game)… 1-5 O/U in his last six games… and 2-7 O/U in his last nine games dating back to the middle of June. In ‘Righty vs Righty’ starting pitcher matchups (like tonight), Hudson has gone 2-9 O/U for the season. He’s also been a solid UNDER Umpire in Arizona games… going 1-7 O/U in his last eight involving the D’Backs.
The Mets have been one of Baseball’s BEST ‘Under’ teams this season when playing on the road. In fact, New York is ranked #2 in the entire league in terms of UNDERS when playing there role of visitor. Their record of 21-34-2 O/U on the road is right behind Toronto (18-36-3 O/U).
We’ll be getting an ideal matchup for a low-scoring outcome when it comes to tonight’s starting pitchers. For the visitors, Noah Syndergaard comes in with a 2.75 ERA for the entire season. He’s in strong K/BB form with a ratio of 48 to 13 in his last seven starts. And he’s a great pitcher when it comes to keeping the ball in the park. In 134.3 innings pitched on the year, ‘Thor’ has allowed only 8 total home runs. That’s only ONE ‘dong’ for every 17 innings pitched. And when we are on the ‘Under’, that’s one of the starting pitcher stats that is extremely pertinent. He just faced this very same Diamondbacks team five days ago. So look for some subtle adjustments in his second ‘go-round’. It’s not like he has to fix much anyway. Arizona hitters have only a .211 lifetime batting average against Syndergaard.
Speaking of ‘team versus pitcher’ numbers, it was Braden Shipley of the Diamondbacks who was the opposing pitcher of that New York / Arizona game just five days ago. And the Mets’ hitters went 2 for 17 versus Shipley (.118 team batting average). After starting his season with a ‘blow up’ in his first start, the San Diego right-handed hurler has pitched lights out. In his last three starts, Shipley has pitched 19 innings… allowed only 12 hits… allowed only ONE home runs… and his ERA was a brilliant 0.95. In two of those outings, he went 6 innings or more and allowed ZERO earned runs.
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Pick Made: Aug 16 2016 8:47AM PST