Analysis:
I'm playing on the NY METS. The Mets are (obviously) pretty steep favorites for this one. On a 4-game slide, some may find that hard to imagine. Not me. In my opinion, given the matchup, this line could be even higher.
DeGrom is having an excellent season and could easily have a better record than he does. In 20 starts, he's got a 2.35 ERA with a 1.076 WHIP. He's particularly dominant at home. In 11 starts here, he's 5-2 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.986 WHIP, striking out 78 in 69 innings. DeGrom is currently at the top of his game, too. Over his last three starts, he's got a 0.44 ERA, allowing a single earned run in 20 2/3 innings.
Cosart offers a stark contrast. Last time out, he gave up 10 hits and five runs, lasting only five innings. In six starts, he's got an ugly 5.79 ERA and 1.857 WHIP. In his two road starts, he's got a 9.00 ERA and a 2.333 WHIP, walking nine batters while striking out only four.
While DeGrom has 120 K's vs. 28 walks this season, Cosart has 22 walks vs. only 19 K's.
Still tempted to back the Padres? Consider that they're just 4-22 (-14.7) their last 26 as road underdogs in the +175 to +200 range. During that stretch, they're also a money-burning 23-55 (-27.6) in road games, when the O/U line was seven or less, 0-7 their last seven in that situation.
While they dropped below .500 yesterday, the Mets' bullpen was stellar and the offense showed signs of life, nearly overcoming a substantial deficit. Manager Terry Collins had "called out the team" after it got swept by the DBax. With a major edge on the mound, I fully expect Collins' crew to finally right the ship.
Pick Made: Aug 13 2016 4:30AM PST