Analysis:
King’s pre-season NFL plays are rated 1*, and 2* each
Thursday, August 11th
#261 / 8:00pm ET - 5:00pm PT
DENVER BRONCOS @ CHICAGO BEARS
1* Play on: OVER THE TOTAL (35 points)
REMEMBER: This is the NFL pre-season. The games actually ‘don’t even count’. But the betting certainly DOES. Our ratings in the NFL ‘X’ season are significantly lower (1-2 stars) than if this were a regular season game (2-5 stars). With a current Over / Under line of 35 points, the OVER is worth a small play on Thursday. Especially in a game that means a lot more than a typical Week One pre-season affair. First off, no one needs to be reminded that Bear’s head coach John Fox wouldn’t mind STICKING IT to his old team (defending World Champion Denver Broncos). While it’s true that a lot of veteran head coaches don’t really give a crap about pre-season results, things are a bit different for the host Bears. They’re looking to bounce back from a 6-10 season last year and have had a lot of questions pop up during mini-camp and training camp. The QB rotation of Cutler, Hoyer, Fales, and Williams should have no problem putting up the 17-20 points that we will need to push this one OVER the Total. Especially knowing that the BEARS have gone a PERFECT 4-0 O/U in their last four pre-season GAME ONES (43.5 co,lined points per game)… and 10-1 O/U in the last 11 seasons. In addition, Chicago has gone a perfect 6-0 O/U as pre-season home underdogs or ‘short’ favs of < 3 points (game is currently ‘PICK EM) when the OU line is 37 or less points.
Secondly, the visitors have a TRUE starting quarterback battle for the NUMBER ONE spot. That means significant minutes and quality time for all THREE of Denver’s QB’s. The current plan is for QB Mark Sanchez to play the entire first quarter… Trevor Sieman to play the entire second quarter (a LOCAL boy from Northwestern who looks to light it up)… and rookie QB Paxton Lynch to play the entire second half. And make no mistake. All three guys will be trying to ‘OUT DO’ the other two… On defense, we already know what we are getting with the defending Super Bowl champs. Denver is as ‘good as it gets’ when it comes to defense (293 YPG allowed last year and only 17.9 points per game). But this is not a Playoff game. And it’s not even a regular season game. The Broncos lost Malik Jackson to the Jags and Danny Trevathan to the very same Bears. That constitutes a big chunk missing from the interior of the Denver D. A defense that will also NOT be playing Von Miller… DeMarcus Ware… OR Aqib Talib. So we’ll go with the flow (Denver: 4-1 O/U in pre-season GAME ONE on the road).
NFL pre-season games on a THURSDAY have gone 14-4 O/U (78% Over) since 2010 when the OU line is 35 or LESS points…
NFC NORTH DIVISION ‘pick or favs’ (BEARS) have gone 10-3 O/U (77% Over) since 2010 versus AFC WEST DIVISION opponents (BRONCOS)…
NFC CONFERENCE pre-season GAME ONE home teams who are ‘pick’ or favs (BEARS) have gone 17-6 O/U when the OU line is 35 < points.
Pick Made: Aug 10 2016 11:53AM PST