Analysis:
#965-966 / 7:10pm ET / 4:10pm PT
NEW YORK YANKEES with Eovaldi @ BOSTON RED SOX with Pomeranz
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
Neither starting pitcher comes into his game with his best stuff. In fact, both have been very prone to giving up the LONG BALL. If we can get a couple of those dongs with multiple men in base, then we should nail this one fairly easily. Especially if the current weather forecast stays true to form. Pre-game forecasts show that the winds will be blowing OUT tonight at Fenway Park in excess of 13-15 MPH straight into Center Field. Factor in a Man in Blue that’s been a great OVER Umpire, and our choice is clear-cut in regards to the Total.
So let’s run through tonight's starting pitchers. We’ll start with Drew Pomeranz of the host Red Sox. Their acquisition of him in early July was supposed to propel Boston to the top of the AL East. But did the Red Sox get damaged goods? Or did San Diego just ‘STICK IT’ to every team that traded for one of their pitchers? Check this out: Here’s the ERA’s of the pitchers that the Padres traded away this season: Shields (6.68 ERA)… Rodney (6.50 ERA)… Cashner (6.70 ERA)… and POMERANZ (6.20 ERA). In his four American League starts, Pomeranz has also allowed FIVE home runs in only 20 in innings. And in his last start (vs the Mariners), he lost control with a disturbing 6 walks in 6 innings. In two Fenway Park starts, his ERA is 7.00. And finally, tonight’s opponent (Yankees) are torching LEFT-handed pitchers as of late. To the tune of 6.6 runs per game in their last ten games…
Nathan Eovaldi gets the call for the visiting Yankees. He’s also been prone to the Gopher Ball. Eovaldi has given up 2 home runs in each of this last two starts (losses to the Mets and Rays). And 16 home runs in his last eight starts dating back to the beginning of June. He’s already faced the Red Sx twice this season. In those games, his ERA is 5.54… and BOTH of ‘EM went OVER the Total. In his career, the Red Sox are hitting .302 versus Eovaldi. That includes: Hanley Ramirez (.421)… Dustin Pedroia (.385)… David Ortiz (.333)… Jackie Bradley Jr (.333)… Brock Holt (.333)… and Mookie Betts (.312). That’s ALL of the big sticks in the Boston lineup.
Sealing the deal is tonight’s Man in Blue. The Top Two OVER Umpires of the Day are BRIAN KNIGHT (15-6 O/U this year / 10.6 runs per game)… and MARK WEGNER (15-6 O/U this year / 10.8 runs per game). Wegner will be going in the Houston / Minnesota game. But with two solid starting pitchers in good current form going in that one (Keuchel vs Santana), we’ll pass. KNIGHT will be going in our game at Fenway Park. One of only FIVE Men in Blue that have gone OVER Ion more than 70% of their games this season. And in much HOTTER current form than Wegner anyway (who’s gone 0-2 O/U in his last two games). KNIGHT comes into tonight’s game on a 7-1 O/U run in his last eight dating back to the middle of June. Average combined runs scored during that streak: 12.4…. with gaudy run totals like 20 runs, 17 runs, 16 runs (his most RECENT game), and 12 runs.
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Pick Made: Aug 10 2016 8:45AM PST