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906 NYM / 905 ARI Under 7 Pinnacle
double-dime bet
Analysis:Arizona will begin a 3-game series in New York against the Mets on Tuesday night. The Diamondbacks will start Zack Greinke who has been fantastic on the road this season with a 1.85 ERA and 0.93 WHIP, allowing just 10 runs in 48.2 innings of work with a 48/7 strikeout/walk ratio. Greinke projects to have another strong outing in this game. My numbers project Greinke to give up 2.4 runs with a solid 3.20 ERA and 1.08 WHIP tonight. Greinke also projects to have a strong 8.3 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a terrific 3.9 strikeout/walk ratio in this game. The Mets have only hit .211 (34-for-161) with a poor .642 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Greinke during his career. New York has been one of the weakest offensive teams in the league this season, averaging just 3.7 runs per game while batting only .239 as at team.The Mets will send Steven Matz to the mound who has pitched better than his 3.78 ERA and 1.28 WHIP indicates as the southpaw has a powerful 112/28 strikeout/walk ratio this season. My numbers project a strong outing for Matz; he is slated to give up 2.3 runs with a solid 3.35 ERA and an excellent 1.16 WHIP in this game. Matz also projects to have a fantastic 9.0 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a strong 3.5 strikeout/walk ratio tonight. Matz has only thrown 10 total pitches to Arizona’s lineup in his career, so that gives him a nice matchup advantage in this game. He is backed by a solid New York bullpen that has a 3.23 ERA and 1.22 WHIP this season while converting 80% of their save opportunities. Look for a low-scoring game between the Diamondbacks and Mets on Tuesday night.
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