Analysis:
#923-924 / 10:10pm ET / 7:10pm PT
DETROIT TIGERS with Norris @ SEATTLE MARINERS with LeBlanc
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
In terms of starting pitcher matchups, we’re scraping the bottom of the barrel in Game Two of this Seattle / Detroit series. Daniel Norris for the Kitty Kats and Wade LeBlanc for the M’s. Both lefties with ERA’s over 5.00 in their last three starts. Neither one is in the regular rotation of starters for their respective teams. They are usually trotted out to the mound when there is an injury to one of the other Top 5 starters… or when there is a period on the schedule in which multiple games were played with no ‘off day’. That’s the case for the Tigers, who are playing their 8th game in 8 days. And for the host Mariners, this will be their 11 game in 11 days (with no rest). So not only are we seeing ‘spot starts’ from non-regular pitchers… but BOTH bullpens are also ‘taxed to the max’… which is another good sign for a lot of runs.
Norris’ last start was way back on July 4th, when he lasted only TWO innings in a game against the Indians. His ERA is 5.25 on the year. He’s allowed 4 home runs in only 13.3 innings pitched. His ERA on the road is 6.00. He’s already faced the Mariners once this year. In that game, he gave up THREE home runs in only 5 innings pitched. He’s gone 5-1 O/U In his last six starts versus winning (> .500) opponents.
For the Mariners, Wade LeBlanc was a late add-on. The Tuesday starting pitcher spot was originally scheduled as a ‘TBA’ (to be announced). Just like his counterpart, LeBlanc has struggled with the long ball. And that’s 'music to OVER Players' ears’. He’s given up 7 homers in just 31 innings pitched. In his last three starts. LeBlanc’s ERA is 5.51.
Jus in case we need it, Tuesday’s BEST ‘Over’ Umpire will be working in this Game Two of the Seattle / Detroit series. That would be ADRIAN JOHNSON. Of the 82 Umpires who have worked behind the dish this season, Johnson ranks #6 in ‘OVERS’ with a record of 12-5-1 O/U (71%). dating back to the last 2 months of last season, Johnson’s record is 16-5-2 O/U (76% Overs). In terms of RECENT form, we note that he;s home 5-1-1 O/U in his last seven games dating back to the middle of June. Average runs scored in those games: 11.8…. including some gaudy games with run totals like 19, 15, 13, and 13. He’s also one of the best OVER Umpires in the ‘Junior Circuit’. JOHNSON has gone 6-1 O/U in American League play THIS season (11.3 combined rune per game)… and 21-9-1 O/U in the last two years.
Pick Made: Aug 9 2016 9:34AM PST