Analysis:
Sunday, Sept. 8th / 1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT / #456
Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL (42 pts)
The OU line for this Week One inter-conference game opened at 42.5 points back in early July. That’s the line that I bet it at. It has since gone down a half point (to 42) as we type this on August 1st. And there’s a good chance that the line will go down even MORE as we get closer to the month of September. For that reason, we’re releasing this play ASAP. Sharp OU players will want to get their action in before it goes down even further.
A great Vikings defense takes the field that was ranked #10 in total yards allowed last year (337). And Minnesota also allowed only 18.4 total points per game in 2015, which was good for the 5th LOWEST average in the league (behind Kansas City, Cincinnati, Seattle and Denver). It also sure doesn’t hurt us that these were two of the weaker offenses in the NFL last year. Minnesota was ranked #29 in the league with only 313.1 yards per game on offense while Tennessee was ranked #30 (311.7 ypg).
With Minnesota playing the role of Week One ‘road CHALK’ (-3 points), we confidently submit the following EXTREME low-scoring pattern that I’ve mentioned frequently in the Totals Tipsheet newsletter the last few years:
NFL Week One non-division road favorites (Vikings) have gone 5-26-1 O/U since 1998 when the OU line is 41 or more points. These teams have also gone 3-22-1 O/U when favored by a field goal or more (-3 or greater).
The host Titans won only 3 games last season, while the Vikings had 11 victories…
1-10 O/U since 2006: All GAME ONE’s in which one team won 11 > games last year (Min) versus an opponent who won 5 < games last year (Ten)… when the OU line is 48 or less points.
Let’s throw out the ‘Week One SPECIFIC’ nature of this game, and just look at NFC vs AFC games as of late. After an extreme high-scoring pattern in 2013 and 2014, things have changed dramatically… depending on the site and the pointspread.
1-9 O/U last 2 years: All NFC Conference road favorites of > 1 pt (Vikings) versus an AFC Conference opponent (Titans) when the OU line is < 47 points.
MINNESOTA: 0-2 O/U in GAME ONES the last two years (31.5 combined points per game)... Also 1-9 O/U as road favorites in the last ten seasons when the OU line is > 41 points.
TENNESSEE: 1-4 O/U in GAME ONES the last five years (38.5 combined points per game)... Also 0-4 O/U home vs all NFL opponents in the last two seasons (33.3 ppg).
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*NFL 2016 full-season 'WIN TOTAL' Over / Under FREE PLAY
OVER 7 wins (-110) / SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Last year's San Diego Chargers had more luck than any other team on the NFL. And it was all BAD luck! They finished last in the AFC West Division, and their 4-12 record was third WORST in the entire AFC Conference. San Diego suffered some devastating injury losses on offense, involving impact players (Keenan Allen / Antonio Gates)... and along the offensive line. Despite that, they were a decent statistical team. In fact, they still had more yards on offense (372 / #7 in the league) than they allowed (362). So on paper, this was a team that really should have finished 8-8 or 9-7. Look for a 'market correction' in the 2016 season. All we need to hit this exotic wager is a .500 record (8-8) or better. We also can't ignore the fact that the Charger's brought back old friend Ken Whisenhunt as offensive coordinator in the off-season. There's a very good chance that he brings back the magic of the 2013 season (his lone year here). In that season, QB Phillip Rivers had a CAREER season, with 33 TD passes, only 11 ints, 4478 passing yards, and a QB rating of 105.5. And San Diego finished #5 in the entire league on offense (after finishing #31 in 2012). In 2016, RB Melvin Gordon has nowhere to go but UP... Keenan Allen is healthy... and WR Travis Benjamin was one of the better free agent VALUE signings of the off-season. This offense can't HELP but be more efficient this year. The defense has a lot of pieces that can contribute as well. This is a sneaky, under-the-radar team in a division that might not be great. Can they win the entire AFC WEST this year? Probably not. But can they get back to .500 or have a slight winning season? You can BET on it!
Pick Made: Aug 1 2016 1:49PM PST