Analysis:This one is all over the board now at anywhere from +1 to Pick to -1. Not that there is a ton of difference in those numbers but at this point, I would not want to take any worse than Pick 'em.
Early in the week, I made the line in this game Redskins -2 and I would bet that we will surely see some of that before kickoff on Sunday. It may not stick but I am sure they will pop.. and even though this line is slowly but surely moving toward the Washington side, 76% of the tickets are still being written on The Saints.
My math on the game has Washington winning by 2, so there is some value on The Skins at Pick 'Em or better but I think what jumps out the most in this game is simply what the casual fans see and what they don't see. The Saints have put up a great deal of points the past few weeks and their offense looks to have found a rhythm. While the perception on The Redskins is that they are a bad team that just got handled by The Patriots. But the fact is both of these teams own 5-losses and furthermore, The Saints defense is nearly the absolute worst in the league. They are 3rd from last against the run and 2nd to last against the pass. The Redskins began the year rushing the ball very well and they were also stopping the run at an above average clip. They have slipped in both of these categories but I would expect them to have great success in both areas today as their opponent cannot stop the run and even though The Saints have committed more to the run in their recent wins, they still rank below the league average in moving the ball on the ground. Furthermore, while the Washington run defense has slipped, the pass defense is still a top 10 unit in the league. If the below average New Orleans running game cannot get going, and The Redskins pass defense is able to slow down Drew Brees - and on the flip side, if The Washington offense can take advantage of this horrible defense, this looks very much like a successful day for The Redskins to me.
Finally, what's more about this is that I don't like The Saints on the road here - and especially as a favorite as the case may be. Three out of their last 4-games have been at home and the one that was on the road was in a dome at Indianapolis. Prior to that they played outdoors in Philly and got thumped. Now they go outdoors in Washington, nearly a month and a half later, meaning cooler temperatures, on a grass surface which slows this offensive attack down a notch. The Saints, an indoor, warmer weather team if you will, have never been good in this type of spot on the road, and I feel that plays out here again today.
Pick Made: Nov 12 2015 10:52PM PST