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255 HOU 6.5 (-110) Pinnacle vs 256 ATL
double-dime bet
Analysis:
Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons (-6-) 1:00 ET
In the previous 2 years, the Atlanta Falcons were 10-22 SU. Out was 7 year HC Smith and in with HC Quinn. The first year mentor, who was DC at Seattle, has changed the culture with a 3-0 SU ATS start in which Atlanta has beaten NFC East teams, Philly, NYG and Dallas all in competitively priced games. Last week, Atlanta stormed back from an early deficit for a 39-28 win over Dallas. They rushed the ball 32 times for 158 yards and held Dallas to 21 rushing attempts. We know that’s a near 90% winning situation. The closer look at the stats shows us that it is not defensive improvement that has paved the way. For, the Falcons allow 6.4 YP play (3rd worst in the league, behind only New Orleans and San Fran). It is actually the passing game, behind QB Ryan, that is averaging 306 PYPG which has been outstanding. But it is very hard to sustain a winning streak on passing alone. It is also very hard to win and cover 4 consecutive games to start a season after you are 6-10 SU the year before. The public has largely ignored that and is solidly in the corner of the Falcons. After an 0-2 SU start to potential playoff teams, KC and Carolina (each by 7 points), Houston righted their ship last week with a home victory vs. Tampa Bay. They totally dominated overland with advantages of 46-20 in attempts and 186-57 in yards. Those types of numbers will win you a lot of NFL games. That was without RB Foster in the back field. His return remains “iffy” for this contest. With or without Foster and at this value price, I am most comfortable lining up with this contrary play on the Houston Texans as underdog.
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