Analysis:
Coach Fletcher’s 2*
CFB Blowout of the Week
Saturday, October 3
12:30 pm Old Dominion at Marshall
The Pick 2*
Marshall (192) - 18.5 Westgate
Marshall at 3-1 hosts Old Dominion at 2-2 at home on
Saturday. I have called this our Blowout
of the Week because I have Marshall winning by 31 points.
The Thundering Herd may not be as good this year as in the
past couple of years, but they are still a formidable foe. Old Dominion may be better this year than in
the past, but they are no match for Marshall.
Old Dominion is averaging 19 points per game and giving up
nearly 33 per game. Marshall scores 33
per game and gives up 22. So we have a
MINUS 14 point differential for OD and a PLUS 11 point differential for
Marshall. That’s strong.
Old Dominion averages 151 yards per game rushing and 148
yards passing. Marshall averages 166
yards rushing and 187 yards passing. OD
checks in at 299 yards of total offense per game while Marshall gets 353.
Defensively is where this game tends to separate. OD gives up 229 yards rushing per game and
Marshall gives up 189. OD gives up 183
yards per game in the air. Marshall
gives up 172. Marshall has about a 50
yard advantage overall on defense and another 50 or so on offense.
Of course these numbers mean nothing without checking in on
the competition.
OD opened up as 6 point chalk at Eastern Michigan and held
on to a 38-34 win. Eastern Michigan
outgained the Monarchs both rushing and passing but had 3 turnovers that cost
them dearly. Eastern Michigan had 444
total yards.
In game 2 the Monarchs were favored by 24 over Norfolk State
but won just 24-10. They killed Norfolk
on the ground gaining 338 yards in 59 carries.
The Monarchs had 122 yards in the air.
Their defense came to play and only gave up 103 yards rushing and 163
passing. Marshall beat Norfolk State
45-7 which is a far cry from 24-10.
Marshall allowed under 100 yards on both the ground and air.
In game 3 OD tried to go toe to toe with NC State but lost
38-14 as 17.5 point dogs. NC State
forced OD into minus yards rushing and 151 yards passing. NC State gained 256 yards rushing and 179
passing.
The Monarchs tried Appalachian State in game 4 and it wasn’t
pretty. App State is a quality team and
showed it by downing the Monarchs 49-0 as 7 point favorites. OD gained only 42 yards rushing in 21 carries
and 133 yards in the air going 16-28. OD
had 4 turnovers and allowed 501 yards of offense to App State.
So we have one game against a common opponent, both at
home. OD beat Norfolk State 24-10 as 24
point favorites. Marshall beat Norfolk
State 45-7 as 40 point chalk. OD 460
yards against Norfolk and Marshall gained 495.
Norfolk gained 286 total against OD and gained 191 against Marshall.
Marshall’s first game was with Purdue and they won 41-31 as
7 point favorites. Marshall outgained
the Boilermakers on the ground and in the air.
Game 2 was at Ohio U.
Marshall was upset 21-10 as 3 point favorites. Marshall’s air attack was shut down to under
100 yards even though they ran the ball for more than 6 yards per carry. Their 4 turnovers sealed the deal.
Game 3 was against the aforementioned Norfolk State and in
game 4, the Herd toppled Kent State 36-29 as 7 point favorites. Marshall was outgained on the ground and in
the air by Kent State and committed 3 turnovers to 1 for Kent State, yet won
the game.
In last year’s contest, Marshall won 56-14 as 19 point
chalk. This is a better team for OD and
Marshall is not as good. But a 42 point
win is a 42 point win. And that one was
at Old Dominion.
I always preface my comments on Jeff Sagarin the same
way. I am not a fan of his. However, he is one of the only people who
attempts to rate all 253 CFB teams. I
use him for comparison purposes only but sometimes he points me in a direction
I wasn’t aware of. Sagarin has Marshall
rated at #80. He has Appalachian State,
victorious over OD 49-0, rated 73. Jeff
has OD all the way down at 167.
And, YES, I am aware that Birdsong and Johnson are questionable
for this game. They have adequate
backups and it doesn’t concern me other than the fact I’ve dropped it from a 3*
to a 2*. Tony Pittman and Chasse Litton
will fill in if needed. The uncertainty
is one reason the line has gone down from 21.
Coach’s Conclusion:
The Monarchs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after gaining
less than 170 yards passing. They are
also 0-8 ATS in their last game following a straight up loss. The Herd is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home
games. Marshall’s secondary should be
able to handle OD and the Herd have one of the better special teams in the
country, ranked 23rd with 122.2 return yards per game. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if
Marshall ran a kickoff or punt for a score here. Marshall needs to clean up their penchant for
penalties, averaging 78 yards per game.
I think Marshall will make a stand here and pile on if they can. They’ve done it in the past so nothing but
talent is stopping them here. They see
that OD was punished 49-0 in their last game and that should surely motivate
the squad.
The Pick 2*
Marshall -18.5 Westgate
Pick Made: Sep 30 2015 3:39PM PST