Analysis:
Coach Fletcher’s
1* MLB Pick
Monday, Sept, 28
4:05 pm St. Louis at Pittsburgh
1*
Under 7.5 -125 William Hill
Pirates Keep Chipping
Away at Cardinals
Three games separate these teams as we head to the end of
the regular season.
The Pitchers
Lynn, Cardinals
Lynn is 12-10 with a 3.16 era on the season. In Lynn’s last start he threw 6 shutout
innings. Lynn is 5-5 on the road with a
3.43 era. He’s 1-1 with a 3.52 era over his
last 3 games. The consistent Lynn was
3-3 with a 3.86 era over his last 7 and 7-6 with a 3.60 era in his last
15. He’s been touched up for 6 runs in
his last 15 1/3 innings. What is more
concerning to Cards fans is his record against the Pirates. Lynn is 5-6 lifetime with a 5.34 era. In his last start against the Pirates Lynn
didn’t even make it out of the first inning, giving up 6 hits and 7 runs, 3
earned, in 2/3 of an inning. In his last
start at Pittsburg Lynn was rocked for 5 runs and 9 hits in 4 innings.
Happ, Pirates
Happ is one of the feel good stories of the year in baseball. Happ was not effective when pitching for the
Seattle Mariners this year. But once
traded to the Bucs, he became a new man.
Happ has improved to 10-8 with a 3.91 era. In his last 7 starts Happ is 6-1 with a 1.73
era. He’s pitched 41 2/3 innings and
given up only 7 walks while fanning 45.
He’s given up 2 bombs. At home he’s
4-4 with a 3.06 era overall. In his last
3 starts Happ is 2-1 with a 3.71 era. Don’t
be concerned when someone tells you that Happ is 2-8 with a 6.00 era against
the Cards. He’s had one start against
them since 2012, that came in early September.
Happ held the Cards scoreless on 3 hits in 7 innings.
The Bullpens – Here
is why I like the under in this game.
Cardinals – 2.98 era on the road ; 61 saves and 14
blown saves
Pirates – 2.31 era at home ; 54 saves and 13 blown
saves
These are two of the best pens in the game today. If something goes awry neither manager will
shy away from going to the pen. And if
it is close going into the 7th, the pens will be there to hold.
The Hitters
Cardinals
The Cards score 4.0 runs per game and give up just 3.2. They average 4.2 on the road and 4.0 against
LHP. In the past 7 games they have
averaged 4.9 runs per game. They average
4.2 at night and just 4.0 in division.
Their overall batting average is .255 and they hit .247 on the road. In their last 3 game series, against the
Brewers, the Cards averaged 4.0 runs per game.
Pirates
The Pirates average 4.3 runs per game and allow 3.7 runs per
game. They average 4.3 at home and 4.4
versus RHP. They’ve averaged 5.7 in
their last 7 games. They average 4.4 at
night and 4.0 against division. Their
overall batting average is .262 and is the same at home. In their last series, playing the Cubs for 3,
they averaged 2.33 runs per game.
Odds and Ends
The Cards are 64-81 to the under. The Pirates are even at 72-72.
When the total is 7.5 or less the Cards are 31-39 to he
under and Pirates are 30-26 to the over.
As a road dog between +100/+150, the Cards are 9-18 to the
under.
As home favorite of -125/-150, the Pirates are 12-9.
The Cards are 34-36 to the under on the road.
The Pirates are 37-34 to the over at home.
The Cards are 34-36 to the under in division. The Pirates are 36-28 to the over.
The Cards are 48-52 to the under at night. The Pirates are 55-48 to the over.
The Cards are 18-22 to the under vs LHP. The Pirates are 59-52 to the over.
The Cards are 28-34 to the under when playing a team with a
winning record.
The Pirates are 38-32 to the over when playing a team with a
winning record.
It appears that the Cards are an under team, by and large,
and the Pirates are an over team. It is
pretty square to the total as it looks.
However, I consider this the equal of playoff baseball. And playoff baseball, like playoff
basketball, will produce more unders than overs. With Happ as hot as he is, I think he can
hold the Cardinals to two runs or less.
Then let the bullpens take over.
I like the under.
The Pick Cards/Pirates UNDER 7.5 -125 William Hill
Pick Made: Sep 28 2015 10:09AM PST