Analysis:
Coach Fletcher’s 1*
NFL Pick
Sunday, September 27
10:00 am Atlanta at Dallas
The Pick 1*
Dallas +1 Westgate
Brandon Weeden will get the call for Dallas this Sunday when
the 2-0 Falcons come to town as small favorites. Dallas is likewise 2-0 but will not have QB
Tony Romo for a couple of months.
Weeden entered last week’s game against the Eagles and went
7-7 including a 42 yard TD pass to Terrance Williams. However, as a starting QB, Weeden is 5-16 and
has lost his last 8 starts. Weeden has
made 1 start for Dallas and it didn’t turn out well. With Romo out with a back injury, the Cowboys
lost to Arizona 28-17. Weeden was 18-33
for 183 yards with one TD and two picks.
Not only does Dallas have to deal with Romo’s absence, Dez
Bryant will miss another game. That’s an
awfully big hunk of the Dallas offense.
Jason Witten is questionable with ankle injuries. Coach Garrett is confident that Witten will
make it.
The one constant however may be the most important, and that’s
the Cowboys offensive line. Ask the
Eagles’ DeMarco Murray what he thinks of the Cowboy offensive line. Lance Dunbar, Darren McFadden and Joseph
Randle will no doubt carry the bulk of the offense behind that line. The Falcons have been stingy against the run
this year allowing only 161 yards in 57 carries this season. That’s only 2.8 yards per carry.
The Falcons secondary seems suspect, having allowed the
Eagles 290 yards on 34 passes and the Giants 346 yards on 46 passes. That’s 636 yards through the air in two
games. Weeden may have an easier time
than people think with a secondary that doesn’t look too strong.
The Cowboys haven’t really run the ball to the capability
either. They only went 80 yards in 23
carries against the Giants and 113 in 33 against Philly. That’s just 3.4 yards per carry. The Cowboys gained 606 yards in the air.
The Cowboys defensive line has been outstanding and could
play a big role in the game. They’ve
have better than the Falcons by a fair amount.
Opposing runners are averaging 2.58 yards per carry. The defense has allowed 409 through the air,
more than 200 less than the Falcons.
I expect Weeden to go the distance for the Cowboys. Dallas grabbed veteran Matt Cassel from
Buffalo, but I doubt he will play unless Weeden is hurt.
The Cowboys will need to stop Julio Jones to secure a win
here. Jones already has 276 yards
receiving, 2nd in the league.
The Falcons had far more trouble with the Eagles than did
Dallas. Philadelphia mounted a second
half comeback to take the lead but the Falcons came back to nab a 26-24
win. They may be missing rookie running
back Tevin Coleman who left the field on the cart last week with a fractured
rib. Even if he is taped up and shot up,
a running back will have trouble playing with a fractured rib, especially
against a defense that is holding backs to 2.58 yard per carry. Devonta Freeman will start in his place if he
can’t go.
The Falcons are going to have to use the pass more than they
like against the Cowboys defense. They
are the 3rd worst rushing team in the NFL with 2.82 yards per
carry. An inability to run will allow
the Cowboys to make life uncomfortable for Matt Ryan. Atlanta’s Paul Worrilow, 5th in
the NFL with 142 tackles last year, is day to day with a bruised calf.
Coach’s Conclusion
I like the Cowboys here at home. They have the kind of offensive and defensive
line play that wins championships. The
offensive line has been masterful for years and the defense has caught up so
far this year. The Falcons are not going
to be able to run the ball. Dallas will
take advantage of that and pressure Matt Ryan.
I believe it will be a low scoring game but the Cowboys will come out on
top. The Cowboys are 9-3 all-time at
home versus Atlanta, and even without Romo they should be able to grind out a
win here. Weeden has completed his last
12 passes, which curiously, is the longest streak in the league. Dallas is 14-0 when scoring 20 points since
the beginning of last season, and though that might be tough to get here, it’s
about what I figure they will get. The
Falcons are 7-6 when scoring 20 or more since 2014, the 6th worst in
the league. I’m taking the Cowboys in a
tight one.
The Pick 1*
Cowboys +1 Westgate
Pick Made: Sep 25 2015 12:40PM PST