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920 DET / 919 MIN Over 9 5Dimes
double-dime bet
Analysis:
Detroit will host Minnesota for a 3-game series beginning on Friday night. The Tigers will start Matt Boyd who is 1-5 with a terrible 7.31 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in ten starts this season. Boyd has allowed 11 runs and 13 hits in his last 12 innings of work, and all three of those games went Over the total. Boyd will be facing a Minnesota team that is scoring 4.9 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. Minnesota has scored 3 runs or more in ten of their last eleven games, so they come into this game in good current form. The Tigers’ bullpen has a 4.57 ERA on the season with 19 losses and 20 blown saves, so Boyd has little support on the backend.
Minnesota will start Mike Pelfrey in this game. Pelfrey is 2-6 with a horrendous 6.21 ERA and an ugly 1.79 WHIP in 15 road starts for the Twins this season. Pelfrey has allowed 12 runs and 22 hits in his last three starts, so he is in poor current form. In his last three starts against the Tigers, Pelfrey has given up 11 runs and 21 hits in 19.1 innings of work. Alex Avila (4-14), Rajai Davis (3-8), Anthony Gose (5-12), Jose Iglesias (4-10), and JD Martinez (3-9) have all had success versus Pelfrey. The Tigers are hitting .277 while averaging 4.6 runs per game against divisional opponents this season; they’ve gone 41-27 to the Over in those games as well. Minnesota’s bullpen has a poor 4.12 ERA on the road this season, so Pelfrey has little support on the backend. We expect a high-scoring game between the Twins and Tigers on Friday night.
2* Play OVER the total.
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