Analysis:
There are some +7's out there but with juice, so it is essentially the same thing as buying a +6.5 up. I like having a key number but I truly don't think it will matter in the end.
San Francisco surprised a lot of people in their Monday Night opener but I did post them as a Free Play that night for the winner as I felt the line had swung too far and people were not giving The Niners enough credit. They looked like many thought they would in Week Two and I think now in Game Three, we are set up for a similar situation as we were in Game One.. the public perception is that The 49'ers are gawd awful but I believe the truth lies somewhere in between their performance in Week One and Week Two. When they beat Minnesota, The Vikings were a lot worse than I expected but in Week Two, The 49'ers were in a horrible scheduling spot, having to travel all the way back east on a short week, after playing Monday Night, to face a powerful offense that had extra time to prepare, having played the opener against The Patriots on the prior Thursday. So again, I think we are getting line value again this week due to the thrashing San Francisco took last week, coupled with Arizona's early season success, scoring on average, nearly 40-points per game.
But Arizona has played two of the weakest defenses in the league in New Orleans and Chicago and today they will face a division rival that has always been a very physical defensive unit. Just like last year when The Cardinals were outyarded on average by 64-yards per game, they are doing the same this year and that is not a good recipe for a favorite laying a touchdown or close to it.
The 49'ers are 6-and-1 ATS when getting points from The Cardinals. Carson Palmer is 1-and-3 ATS vs. San Francisco and was twice favored in which he lost both SU. In 17-home games in this series, The Cardinals have won 7 - only 2 by more than a TD. They have been favored 6-times and are 0-and-6 ATS, losing 4-of those SU. Now, I understand that those were "different" 49'ers teams than this one but I also believe that this year's Niner team is not as different as people want to make them out to be.. nor do I believe this Arizona squad is much different than in year's past. But this one does not necessarily apply to "different" teams - as road underdogs in the NFL giving up 40 or more points the week prior are 115-88-and-8 (57%) ATS.
And back to the perception of both of these teams.. the line opened up this Summer with The Cardinals favored by 2.5.. so again we have a 4.5 point line swing. Is that justified? About 70% of the tickets on this game are being written on The Cardinals yet slowly but surely, the line has popped down closer to 6 rather than going up to 7 and higher.
I wouldn't at all be surprised by a San Francisco outright win here this Sunday in Glendale.
BONUS:
Saturday College Football
Georgia Tech
Nevada
Missouri
Arizona
Florida International
Pick Made: Sep 25 2015 7:35AM PST