Analysis:
Coach Fletcher’s 3
Pack CFB
Saturday, September
26
Game# 1 1*
#382 UL Lafayette -8
Pinnacle
Game #2 2*
#401 UCLA -3 The Greek
Game 3 3*
# 379 TCU Money Line
-250 William Hill
Game 1 4:00
Akron at UL Lafayette
The Pick UL Lafayette
-8 Pinnacle
The Akron Zips come to UL Lafayette this Saturday. Let’s start this one a little differently and
go with point spread trends first.
Akron
1-10 ATS in last 11 games
2-7 SU in last 9 games
0-5 ATS in last 5 road games
0-5 SU in last 5 road games
Ragin’ Cajuns
4-1 ATS in last 5 games
9-2 SU in last 11 games
4-1 ATS in last 5 at home
21-4 SU in last 25 at home
That should give you a pretty good idea of where we are
going from here.
Akron was pretty ambitious and took on Oklahoma in game
1. They lost 41-3 as 31 point dogs, but
wasn’t really embarrassed. They rushed
for 138 yards in 44 carries and passed for 88 yards in 26 tries. Oklahoma rushed for only 100 yards on 33
carries but gained 439 through the air in 28-42 passing. The Sooner turned it over 2 times.
Game 2 found the Zips going up against Pittsburgh. They lost 24-7 as 12.5 point dogs. The Akron offense disappeared this week
rushing for 47 yards on 24 carries and passing for just 63 yards on 7-22
passing. Pittsburgh didn’t exactly burn
up the stat book. They ran for 127 yards
on 46 carries and passed for 180 yards in 25 throws.
Akron finally got a break and played Savannah State. As 45 point chalk the Zips won 52-9. They poured on the offense here gaining 616
yards. They had 291 in 47 carries on the
ground and went 18-33 for 335 yards in the air.
They held Savannah to just 74 yards in 34 carries on the ground and
13-34 passing for 128 yards.
The Rajun’ Cajuns have played only 2 games. They opened up at Kentucky, which has turned
out to be a pretty fair team this season.
As 16.5 point dogs they extended the Wildcats and lost by a score,
40-33. Incredibly they rushed for 247
yards in 47 carries and threw for 232 yards going 26-41. Their 4 turnovers sealed the loss. Kentucky rushed for 178 yards in 26 carries
and passed for 257 in 34 attempts. Let’s
compare this with Kentucky’s game against Florida. Yes, that Florida. When Florida played Kentucky they rushed for
120 yards. ULL rushed for 247. The Gators passed for 125 yards against the
Wildcats. ULL passed for 232. So while Florida gained 245 yards in total
offense against Kentucky, ULL gained 479, nearly twice what the Gators
got. Kentucky did gain 435 yards against
the Rajun’ Cajuns.
The 2nd game for UL Lafayette was just a tad
easier. They went in as 21.5 favorites
against Northwestern State and won
44-17. ULL rushed for 360 yards in 42
carries, that’s about 8.6 yards per carry.
They went 7-9 passing for 187 yards, which is about 20 yards per
throw. Northwester St did churn out some
yards against the Cajuns running for 234 yards and passing for 135.
The last time these two teams played was 2013 and LA
Lafayette won 35-30 at Akron as 7 point favorites. Through 2 games the Cajuns have rushed for
607 yards. That’s a great way to wear
down, demoralize, and beat an opponent into submission. One of the backs, Elijah McGuire rushed for
2,375 and 27 TDs in his career. He ran
for 1,264 last year. Brooks Haack, the
Cajun QB, has completed 64% of his passes but hasn’t thrown for a TD yet.
The ULL defense isn’t quite as impressive. They’ve given up 28.5 points per game but
Kentucky is by far the best team either of these has faced.
Akron’s run defense is pretty good and could give the Cajuns
early troubles. But like all superb
running games, once you get into the 3rd quarter offensive lines
start pushing the defensive lines at will.
One thing I don’t like about the Zip offense is that they
have been using 3 QBa. Tra’Von Chapman
has started all 3 games but has been erratic.
Tommy Woodson has perhaps looked the best of the group. Kyle Pohl is the third guy. Woodson is expected to start this one and
Pohl is questionable.
Coach’s Conclusion –
I’m taking the Rajun’ Cajuns minus the points here. I think their rushing attack will wear down
Akron. But Akron is a much improved team
and will probably stay close for the first half if not longer. The spread numbers are all in the ULL favor
as is the consistency at quarterback.
The fact the Zips have already named Woodson starter could be a
plus. But when 2 guys are going for the
same job it causes you to look over your shoulder at all times and that’s bad.
The Pick # 382
1* ULLafayette -8
Pinnacle
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/pregamepros/pro-bettor/bettor.aspx?id=61497Pick Made: Sep 24 2015 5:29PM PST